Breaks of sun between weak weather systems

Progressive Weather Pattern

After a stretch of little change in the weather, our pattern is becoming more progressive with several weak systems this week.

Today, however, we will be between these small disturbances. Precipitation is unlikely, but some sunshine should make an appearance.

Clouds remain in place this morning but will slowly break up through the latter morning and early afternoon hours. The sunshine will mix with thin clouds this afternoon before clouds increase again this evening.

Accompanying the increasing sunshine will be a steady southwest wind with speeds around 10 mph. This will push some slightly milder air into the area, which any sunshine will help us tap into.

The warmest temperatures will be around or just above 40 for areas will from Rochester to Dansville, and east to places such as Geneva, Penn Yan, Syracuse, and possibly Ithaca.  Upper 30s are likely most other places, though the higher elevations will stick closer to the mid 30s.

Tonight, with clouds increasing and a southerly flow continuing, temperatures should stay near or slightly above 30 degrees. Only portions of Cortland County have a decent shot at falling into the upper 20s.

The next system will start to push in during the predawn hours. An area of light snow showers will develop, mainly across the southern half of the region. Some precipitation may not even reach the ground. Snow will continue into the late morning and midday hours as it gradually tracks east. No more than a coating to half-inch of accumulation is expected.

Behind the snow, clouds will remain in place with highs generally in the upper 30s.

Weekend Weather and Long-Range Trends

Friday will be another day between systems, resulting in mixed skies and temperatures inching upward. Most areas should push into the low 40s, with just the higher elevations of the western Southern Tier and Cortland County remaining near or below 40.

Rain showers, mixing with a little snow at times, will move in Friday night as another system rolls through. Most of the precipitation will end by dawn Saturday.

However, the system will get hung up to our east, so rain and snow showers will continue to be possible Saturday for areas roughly east of Cayuga Lake. Some minor snow accumulations could be possible in those areas, depending on how the changeover from rain to snow evolves and how long the precipitation sticks around.

Colder air will gradually fill in behind this system. Highs on Saturday will still manage the upper 30s, but Sunday will drop to the mid 30s.

Lake effect snow will be disorganized at first on Sunday but should increase late in the day and into the nighttime hours. With northwest winds, areas of Rochester to Tully stand the best shot at some accumulations.

Snow will stick around for Monday, but will likely become less organized during the day. Highs will be in the upper 20s for most areas. A few more snow showers are likely Tuesday.

A weather system will be possible later in the week, which will have the potential for some snow, followed by cooler temperatures to end the month.

This is not a situation where we are expecting extreme cold, though, so ignore the continued hype about the “polar vortex”, which is a meteorological term that the media has hijacked as a scare tactic.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.