Deepening cold brings lake effect squalls

Snow Squalls

Another front in a series of waves of cold air moved through the area last night.

North-northwest winds in its wake have given birth to a spray of lake effect snow showers, including a narrow but intense Cayuga Lake squall. At 7 AM, this squall was directly over Ithaca, stretching east-southeast toward and beyond Owego.

Most areas will see no more than an inch of snow this morning, but within this squall, several inches may fall in a very localized area.

The lake snows will gradually shift east and weaken this morning as winds adjust slightly. The Cayuga Lake band should dissipate with the wind no longer blowing down the axis of the lake.

This afternoon, flurries will be contained mostly to areas near and east of Owasco Lake, while a second area of flurries develops late for areas west of I-390.

Temperatures are well into the teens this morning and will change little during the daytime hours. Expect mid teens throughout the day, but with wind gusts of 30 mph making it feel colder.

The atmosphere will become exceedingly primed for lake effect and snowflake growth tonight at the same time that the late day flurries begin to organize into a band of snow over the northern Finger Lakes. Aiding this band will be a snow band off the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron.

As early as 8 PM, a heavy squall will develop from northwest to southeast, stretching from western Wayne County to eastern Tompkins and western Cortland Counties. Over the next few hours, the band will continue to intensify as it slowly sinks south.

By midnight, the band will begin to weaken as it moves off the lake on its journey south. At this time, it should stretch from roughly Geneseo to Penn Yan to Whitney Point.

The band will pivot to the southwest after midnight with a new spray of light to moderate snow across the Finger Lakes. This will continue into Friday morning. Winds could become aligned for some Cayuga Lake enhancement once again tomorrow morning.

With the expected evolution of the band, the eastern end will serve as a pivot point and will not move as fast as the western end. Combined with topographical influences and very fluffy, rapidly accumulating snow, and some localized areas in southern Cayuga County could see over 8 inches of snow by 7 AM Friday.

Other areas that bear the brunt of the band this evening will see 4-8 inches, with a widespread 1-4 inches throughout much of the Finger Lakes. An additional 1-3 inches will be possible on Friday, though if any persistent bands develop, such as a Cayuga Lake band, locally higher amounts will be possible.

Wind gusts of 25-30 mph will also persist through the night, causing near white-out conditions within the band this evening and plenty of blowing and drifting snow through the night and well into Friday.

Cold Weekend Temperatures

Temperatures will fall into the mid and upper single digits by Friday morning with daytime highs near or below 10 degrees on Friday. Subzero wind chills will be likely throughout the day.

Snow showers will persist into Friday evening before slowly tapering down Friday night and Saturday morning. A few snow showers are likely to continue through Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures Saturday morning will range from 0 to 10 degrees with highs Saturday in the mid teens. Some clearing Saturday night will lead to temperatures of -5 to +5, but with some cold pockets getting even colder.

With at least partial sunshine on Sunday, high temperatures should get back into the low and mid 20s for most areas. Clouds will increase and thicken later in the day as a new weather system approaches.

The path and evolution of this system remain uncertain as we head into Monday and Tuesday. A miss or minor snow event still is the most likely scenario, but only at a 60-70% chance. Heavier snow amounts remain a reasonable possibility and one that will continue to be monitored closely.

Late next week, temperatures will warm as a weather system passes to our west. Highs have a good shot at getting into the 40s at some point next weekend.

More Information:

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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