High Pressure
An arctic high pressure system over the Midwest is nosing its way eastward, keeping unsettled weather at bay to the south.
This unsettled weather is occurring where the cold of the arctic high is butting up against warmer air locked over the Southeastern United States. A few weak disturbances are riding along this boundary through the Ohio Valley.
The surface weather map this morning shows a sharp boundary between arctic air spilling into the Midwest and Great Lakes and much warmer air of the Gulf states.Some thin clouds associated with one of these disturbances are making their way into the Southern Tier this morning and will gradually spread across the region.
Also in the area this morning is a little lake effect, though most of the snow is falling just outside of our region.
Quiet conditions are expected throughout the daytime hours, with sun mixing with and being filtered by the gradually increasing clouds from the south. Winds will be scarcely noticeable and highs will reach the low and mid 20s.
Tonight, the northern edge of an area of light snow will try to cross our southern border. A few flurries will be possible across the southern half of our area as a result, but most of the precipitation may not even reach the ground. Little to no accumulation is expected.
As the disturbance tracks east, our winds will turn to the northwest. Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will move south into the area early Thursday morning, dissipating as it moves off the lake. By the mid-morning, nothing more than a stray flurry should be expected.
Again, accumulations will be minor, with just a coating across the northern half of the Finger Lakes to locally perhaps an inch.
A few more lake flurries will be possible south of Lake Ontario Thursday afternoon, and southwest of the lake into the Rochester area Thursday night. Otherwise, Thursday and even Friday are expected to be dry with a mix of sun and clouds.
Friday in particular now looks sunny, and not snowy, with the disturbance that had been expected now being modeled to fizzle out before arriving in our area. High temperatures Thursday will be in the low and mid 20s, but Friday will mostly see highs in the mid teens after starting in the single digits.
Weekend Weather and Next Week
The weekend will start off cold thanks to mostly clear skies Friday night. Most areas should start near or slightly below zero.
Clouds will increase through the day and by the late afternoon, some light snow may enter into the region from the southwest.
Winds out ahead of this snow will be from the northeast, so no push of warmer air is expected. Instead, highs will once again primarily stick to the mid teens.
Temperatures should rise into the upper teens and low 20s Saturday night as winds finally turn more southerly. Snow will continue through the night, but should be pulling out of the region by Sunday morning.
Because of the cold air, the snow will be fluffy and quick to accumulate. Several inches may fall Saturday night, especially across the northern half of the region. Maximum snow amounts should top out in the 4-6 inch range.
Highs on Sunday will reach the mid 20s as sunshine mixes with lake effect clouds behind the snow. No additional snow is expected at this time, but the potential for at least a few lake effect flurries cannot be totally discounted.
Monday will be quiet with a mix of sun and clouds with highs returning to the teens. An increase in clouds and southeast winds will cause temperatures Monday night to rise back into the teens after initially falling into the single digits.
A stronger storm system is expected on Tuesday, but the path of the low remains uncertain. Precipitation type will need to be monitored with at least a chance for areas of freezing rain. Snow, and also just plain rain, are also possible, and the reality may end up being periods of all three precipitation types.
Temperatures behind this system look a bit less cold for the rest of next week, and especially into the week following thereafter.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Keep FLX Weather Growing!
