Warm Today, Rainy Wednesday
A broad southerly flow will increase across the Finger Lakes today, leading to another mild day.
High pressure off the New England coast and a strong weather system moving across the Great Plains has warm air surging north through the Midwest and Great Lakes.
South winds will steadily increase today and will be rather blustery come this afternoon. Top gusts will be between 35-40 mph for much of the region.
The south winds will be aided by bright, sun-filled skies in boosting our temperatures. Highs will mostly be in the mid and upper 60s, though a few higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Central New York will stick to the low 60s.
Thin clouds will begin to stream in this afternoon but should not block out the sunshine. The clouds will become thicker this evening and through the overnight. Winds will weaken slightly tonight with gusts of 25-30 mph.
The clouds and winds will hold temperatures in the low 50s this evening, with mid and upper 40s overnight.
The first rain showers will start to move in around dawn tomorrow from west to east. On and off showers are likely through the day, with an uptick in precipitation later in the afternoon as low pressure begins to develop to our south along the cold front.
The front itself will enter the region from the west around midday, and will clear out to the southeast by 7 PM. Ahead of the front, temperatures will reach the mid 50s. As the front moves through, a rapid drop into the low and mid 40s is expected.
Snowy Thursday
Low pressure will continue to strengthen Wednesday night, causing precipitation to expand northwest of the center of the low. It is highly likely that most of the Finger Lakes will be in this area of precipitation.
At the same time, temperatures will continue to fall, and rain will gradually turn over to snow Wednesday evening. The snow may be heavy after midnight and well into Thursday morning, with most areas seeing temperatures dropping below freezing.
Snow amounts will be highly dependent on the path of the low and the influx of colder air. Further complicating the accumulation forecast has been the consistent warm weather, which has soil temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.
The models have trended toward a snowier solution, and the chances of seeing under an inch are diminishing. However, I think it will be difficult, but not impossible, to reach some of the higher amounts they are showing.
The bottom line is to expect messy travel conditions Wednesday night into at least the first half of Thursday. Several inches of snow are likely and many areas will probably end up in a 3-6 or 4-8 inch range. Higher elevations will be more prone to higher amounts.
The forecast will continue to be adjusted and a snow map will likely be published with tomorrow morning’s update.
Snow showers will linger through Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. A few flurries may even persist into Friday morning before dry air and sunshine begin to return.
Winds will also increase once more for Thursday, with gusts of 30-40 mph from the northwest. High temperatures on Thursday will only reach the low 30s, while Friday sees just mid 30s.
Warmer air will start to return this weekend, with highs in the upper 40s Saturday and near 50 on Sunday. The exact temperatures are a bit uncertain as a weak system will pass through at some point with an increase in clouds and a few showers. Right now, this seems most likely early Sunday.
Temperatures look warm next week, with most days above 55 degrees and possibly well into the 60s.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
Expect snow on Thursday, but wide-range of possibility in accumulation for Finger Lakes – Surviving Seasons
[…] FLX Weather Meteorologist Drew Montreuil pointed out that snowfall totals will be highly-dependent o…. The region could see anywhere from an inch or two of accumulation, all the way up to 3-6 or 4-8 inches- depending on those factors. […]