The weather pattern over eastern North America and the western Atlantic is stuck in a type of atmospheric logjam.
A wedge of high pressure extends south through the Finger Lakes region, while a disorganized low exists over the Midwest, and last week’s weather maker continues to spin off the coast of New England.
The low off the coast has actually been drifting back to the west, drawing closer to the coast. This will have two indirect consequences here in the Finger Lakes.
First will be a continued northwest flow on the backside of the low. This will keep warmer air at bay. Temperatures today may even be a couple degrees cooler than they were yesterday. Still, many areas should reach the mid 50s this afternoon.
The second effect will be an increase in winds, especially to the east of Cayuga Lake. Here, a few gusts to 30 mph will be possible this afternoon. Winds will be lighter the further west you go.
Otherwise, it will be another sun-filled day, though a batch of thin clouds will move in later this afternoon. Those clouds should quickly move out this evening, allowing overnight temperatures to again reach the low 30s.
Tuesday will have more of the same, though winds will be lighter than today as the logjam starts to break up and the coastal low heads back to the east. Some afternoon clouds will again be possible after a sunny morning.
Highs will once more settle in the mid 50s with overnight temperatures in the 30s. Some rain showers will also be possible through the overnight, mostly to the west of Seneca Lake, as a small disturbance passes by.
Once the coastal low is removed from the picture, warmer air will start to push into the region.
Wednesday will again have plenty of sunshine. Winds will be nearly calm, which will allow the sunshine to warm the air without an influx of cooler air. Look for highs to respond by reaching the mid 60s.
The wind will turn to the south and southeast Wednesday night and will persist through Thursday. With another sunny day, temperatures should break 70 degrees for most of the region.
A weather system may bring a few showers into the area on Friday. Right now, most of the precipitation looks like it will fall to our south. This would allow temperatures to push well into the 60s with just a few stray showers.
Should steadier precipitation move in though, temperatures could end up in the 50s.
A similar story will unfold for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday has a better chance, at this early stage, of staying dry. Both days should reach the 60s unless steadier precipitation moves in.
The weather beyond next weekend looks rather uncertain, but the chances for average to warm temperatures are highly favored vs the chances for cold temperatures. There will be chances for rain, but it is too early to pinpoint when.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.