Warming trend takes over

Gradual Warming

As the weather pattern across the North American continent continues to move at a crawl, warm air will slowly increase across the Finger Lakes.

A weak jet stream is doing little to move weather systems along, and this pattern is unlikely to change for the rest of the week.

Currently, a low pressure system is developing over Colorado and will take the rest of the week to make it to the Upper Great Lakes. Out ahead of this system, a disorganized boundary exists that will work somewhat as a warm front.

This boundary will slowly press east into the Finger Lakes this afternoon. After a sunny start, clouds will increase, especially across the western half of the region. The air at the surface will be very dry, so it will be difficult for any showers to reach the surface this afternoon.

Speaking of the dry air, relative humidity values today will drop to under 20%. A lack of gusty winds will preclude a more serious brush fire risk, but the dry air makes extra caution prudent.

Afternoon temperatures will range from the low 60s across the I-390 corridor, to the mid 50s in the higher elevations of Central New York. Most areas will end up in the neighborhood of 60 degrees.

A better chance for a few showers will come overnight tonight as the boundary creeps eastward. Many areas will probably not see rain, and those that do will only see light amounts.

The clouds will break up some Wednesday morning, but will thicken up again later in the day. No additional showers are expected at this time.

Wednesday’s temperatures will push into the mid 60s throughout the region.

By Thursday, the boundary will have dissolved as warmer air surges into the Northeastern United States. High temperatures in the Finger Lakes will push into the low 70s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Unsettled Weekend

By Friday, the low will be weakening over the northwestern Great Lakes, but some moisture from the low will spiral eastward.

Rain showers will be possible in the Finger Lakes, especially during the morning hours. Sunshine may increase for the afternoon as a wedge of dry air moves in behind the showers.

Temperatures should still be plenty mild with highs into the 60s. There is some uncertainty in the evolution of the rain and sunshine, which will have an impact on the temperatures.

A new low pressure system will strengthen on Saturday over the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Precipitation will likely stay to the south of the Finger Lakes, but skies will turn out mostly cloudy.

High temperatures Saturday should still warm well into the 60s.

By Sunday afternoon, this low will be over Lake Erie. Rain will be likely during the morning, but the afternoon may briefly get into the warm sector of the low. This could bump temperatures up well into the 60s or even near 70.

The low will start to dissolve on Monday as it heads northwest, further back into the Great Lakes. A few stray showers may be possible in the Finger Lakes, but most of the area looks dry. Highs will remain in the 60s without any cold air wrapping around the low pressure.

After spinning and weakening for a few days, the Great Lakes low will eventually disappear as a new low along the coast develops. This could bring some mid-week rain into the Finger Lakes.

In a typical weather pattern, these three low pressure systems may take just 3 or 4 days to cycle and move across the eastern half of North America. Instead, the lack of a strong jet stream will cause this process to take well over a week.

On the bright side, the first two lows will take classic severe weather outbreak tracks, but without the jet stream to support severe weather, only isolated, minor severe storms are expected throughout the United States over the coming days.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.