Another active stretch of weather is kicking off today with showers and storms rumbling through Thursday.
Please note: This blog was written before 8 AM Tuesday, but due to technical difficulties, was posted late.
Already this morning, a few storms have popped up in a warm and humid environment. These storms will move east through the central Finger Lakes and exit the area by mid-morning.
There should be a lull in the action for a couple hours before a few more storms develop early this afternoon. These will move southeast and should exit the region by dinnertime.
The afternoon storms should remain scattered and most areas will probably not see a storm today. The storms that do pop up will have a small wind and hail risk, but only a couple isolated severe weather events are expected, if even that.
Temperatures today will top out in the mid 80s. Even though it will be cooler than yesterday, the humidity will be much higher. Blustery southwest winds will also blow with a few gusts as high as 35 mph, especially across the southern half of the region.
Tonight will be quiet with partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 60s.
New showers and storms will develop before noon on Wednesday, with numerous storms through Wednesday afternoon. More areas should see rain tomorrow than today.
The conditions for severe storms are even less ideal than today, but a couple isolated wind damage reports will not be out of the question. Heavy downpours will also be possible.
Temperatures on Wednesday should again mostly be in the mid 80s with high levels of humidity.
Showers and storms will continue through Wednesday night and right into Thursday. Thursday morning looks like the time with the least number of storms before more activity fires up for the afternoon. Locally heavy rain and an isolated severe storm will continue to be possible.
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low 80s with very muggy dewpoints near or above 70 degrees remaining in place.
By Friday, the weather locally should start to settle down. A few scattered showers will still be possible as some disturbed weather moves through. At the same time, Tropical Storm Elsa will be moving just off the East Coast. We should not see any direct impacts from Elsa.
Cooler air will start to build in by Friday. Look for highs to be in the mid 70s.
Saturday looks dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will again be in the mid 70s. The air will still be on the muggy side on Friday, but by Saturday, dewpoints will drop comfortably into the 50s.
A system will need to be monitored for Sunday. Yesterday, the models had this system moving through. Since then, they have trended further south, missing our region. I have taken rain out of the forecast for now, but the confidence remains low.
Likewise, the path of this system will also have an impact on the weather for Monday.
The weather next week looks a bit less active, though there will still be some chances for rain. Temperatures look very typical for July with highs mostly in the 75-85 degree range.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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