Heat Advisories & Strong Storms
The Finger Lakes region has slipped back into a similar pattern to late June and early July, with hot and humid conditions triggering daily showers and storms thanks to a stalled out frontal boundary.
First, the thunderstorms.
The atmosphere will be primed for thunderstorm development at most any time over the coming days, though there will be a couple of limiting factors.
First, there will be little to give the atmosphere its initial trigger to get storms firing. While this will reduce the coverage of storms, there will be enough from lake breezes, geography, and leftover boundaries from previous storms to overcome this.
As such, the best chance for storms will come during the late afternoon and evening time periods. Any subtle impulses that move through, or leftover storms from other areas, might trigger storms at other times, too. This remains highly uncertain.
Overall, conditions look best for storms late this afternoon and this evening, Wednesday evening and overnight, and late Thursday.
Friday is worth mentioning separate as the stalled front finally sags south and triggers more widespread activity.
Another limiting factor is the winds aloft, which will remain weak. This should keep storms disorganized or in small clusters. The weak winds will also limit the severe weather threat somewhat.
However, as we saw in late June and early July, an atmosphere that is highly primed with fuel for storms does not necessarily need much in the way of winds aloft to work with to produce locally intense storms. Therefore, any storms that develop will need to be monitored for damaging wind gusts, in addition to continuous lightning and torrential downpours.
Temperatures will partly depend on how the storms unfold over the coming days, but it seems likely that most days will reach or at least get close to their maximum heating potential.
Today will be the day most likely to fall a bit short due to afternoon storm development. Still, highs will be at least near 90 for many areas. Dewpoints will be around 70, raising the heat index to hazardous levels.
Wednesday will be similar to today, with highs generally around 90. Thursday now looks to be the hottest day with widespread low 90s and pockets of mid 90s. Nighttime temperatures all three days will stick to the low 70s.
Friday will likely stick to the 80s, albeit the upper 80s, with the increase in thunderstorm activity.
Weekend and Next Week
By Saturday morning, the cold front should be moving through or already beyond the Finger Lakes region. Northwest winds will set up, bringing in cooler, much less humid air.
Depending on the speed of the front, a few showers may linger during the morning hours. These should clear out and leave a mix of sun and clouds for the afternoon. Morning temperatures will be in the mid 60s while afternoon highs will reach the mid 70s.
Clear skies Saturday night will send temperatures back into the 50s for the start of Sunday. Afternoon highs will warm back into the mid 70s with another mix of sun and clouds. Monday will be almost identical.
Tuesday will probably stay dry as well with temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
The weather for the middle of next week may be determined by a tropical storm, Fred, that is expected to develop in the Caribbean today.
Long range predictions of tropical storm tracks are extremely unreliable, but there are a collection of models that bring the remains in our direction, so it bears watching.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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