Hot and Humid
Heat advisories are in place once again today despite temperatures probably not being quite as hot as yesterday.
Extra cloud cover and a westerly, not southerly, breeze will result in high temperatures being a couple degrees shy of yesterday. A few places may still hit 90 degrees, but mid and upper 80s will be more common.
Nonetheless, with dewpoints in the low and mid 70s, heat index values will be calculated in the mid and upper 90s. The local criteria for a Heat Advisory is for heat index values over 95 degrees.
An area of cloudiness is over much of the region early this morning. This should gradually break up and move out, leaving a mix of sun and clouds. Dry weather is expected throughout the region until very late in the day, when a weak impulse of energy slides into the region.
A couple isolated showers may pop up with this feature and continue into the first part of the evening. A little lightning may be possible at times, but severe weather and flooding are unlikely.
Another chance for a few showers will come during the hours surrounding dawn Friday, when a few light showers may develop. These will dissipate by the mid to late morning. A few more showers will pop up in the afternoon near the NY-PA state line.
All in all, most areas will not see any rain today or tomorrow.
Temperatures will retreat for Friday with highs mostly in the low 80s. Dewpoints in the northern half of the region will fall back into the 60s, but humid 70s for dewpoints will remain to the south.
Humid Until Cold Front Monday
Little will change in the overall pattern through the weekend until a cold front moves through the area midday Monday.
The chances for scattered showers and storms will be higher on Saturday and Sunday compared to today and tomorrow. This will be thanks to a nearby stalled out frontal boundary.
The Finger Lakes will remain on the warm and muggy side of this boundary. Highs will ultimately be determined by just how much rain manages to develop.
Trends in the models have been for less rain and more sun, resulting in higher temperatures. Mid 80s see like a decent bet, at least for the northern half to two-thirds of the region. Scattered showers will be possible, but it would not surprise me for multiple areas to see no rain through the weekend.
Again, severe weather is not expected, but a few localized areas could see some heavy downpours and minor poor-drainage flooding issues.
Rain is much more likely on Monday as a strong cold front moves through the region. The timing of the front looks fairly early in the day, so the best chance for rain will come in the late morning and early afternoon.
Conditions do not look great for severe weather, but a couple stronger storms will not be out of the question, especially if the front is delayed a couple hours.
Meanwhile, by Monday, the next tropical system may be making landfall along the Gulf Coast. This storm will be named Ida and will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm today in the western Caribbean.
Early model projections bring rain from Ida northeast after landfall, but the spread of possibilities is large, as is expected at this stage. It will be something to monitor for the middle and end of next week.
Assuming rain from Ida stays out of our region, most of next week would be quiet and cooler. Daily highs in the 70s would be common with dewpoints comfortably in the 50s or low 60s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.