Clouds thicken ahead of rainy Wednesday-Thursday

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday september 21 2021 cloudy windy rain
Thickening clouds and increasing south winds will be precursors to rainy days Wednesday and Thursday. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Unsettled Mid-Week Weather

As high pressure continues to slowly push eastward over the Atlantic Ocean, moisture will increase ahead of a slow moving cold front.

The front itself remains well to the west, stretching from Lake Michigan south toward St. Louis, Missouri, where an area of low pressure is attempting to develop.

Ahead of the front, a plume of moisture extends from southern Ontario south into the Appalachian Mountains.

For today, the Finger Lakes will remain just east of this plume of moisture. There will be plenty of clouds, but some occasional sunshine as well. A stray shower is not out of the question, especially in the far western areas, but generally it will be a dry day.

South winds will be a bit breezy with gusts over 25 mph at times. Nonetheless, temperatures will generally be held in check by the cloud cover, with low and mid 70s this afternoon. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s during the daytime hours but will rise into the 60s tonight.

Showers are likely tomorrow, starting across western areas and then filling in to the east throughout the day. This rain will be on and off, though the rainy parts of the day may outnumber the dry parts for the western half of the region.

Winds will increase further, with gusts of 35 or even 40 mph. The strongest gusts will be over the higher elevations of the western Southern Tier. Afternoon highs will reach the low 70s.

Finally, the cold front will gradually make its way through the area on Thursday. The timing of the front remains a bit uncertain. Regardless, it will be slow moving and will likely contain some areas of heavy rain. Widespread amounts over an inch are likely, and locally 2+ inches will be possible.

As the rain band arrives, winds will peak with gusts of 40-45 mph, still from the south. As the front passes, the rain and wind will abruptly end, skies will clear and temperatures will drop.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday september 21 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Quiet and Cool

Friday should be mostly sunny behind the front as dry air wraps around low pressure to our west and enters our region. Winds will be from the southwest and could be blustery for a time near and west of I-390.

These will not be warming winds though, and highs Friday will generally fail to reach 70 degrees.

Saturday will be a couple degrees warmer in the low 70s, but highs Sunday and Monday will only reach the mid 60s.

Skies will be mixed on Saturday and a couple late showers cannot be ruled out. Mostly, these look to be after sunset and should be out of the area by Sunday morning. Most areas will probably not see any additional rain, though.

A few early showers will also be possible Monday morning, but again, many areas will stay dry.

Morning lows from Friday morning into next week will be split, with low 50s across the northern half of the region and mid and upper 40s, and possibly locally colder, to the south.

There will be better chances for rain toward the middle of next week with daytime highs mostly staying in the 60s.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday september 21 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

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