Mixed skies Thursday ahead of increasing showers this weekend

finger lakes weather forecast thursday october 14 2021 sun clouds fog showers cold front saturday
Areas of morning fog will give way to mixed skies for a dry, mild afternoon. Active weather is on the way this weekend. [Photo by Carole Norton Leach]

Thursday-Friday Forecast

High pressure stretches along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains this morning while a powerful storm system is lifting north out of the Great Plains and into southern Canada.

A cold front extends south from this low, extending from Wisconsin to Texas. High pressure will keep this front at bay for the next couple days, but eventually, a new low will develop and send the front through our region on Saturday.

Until that happens, though, temperatures will remain well above average.

Our Thursday is starting off in the 50s with areas of fog. Some of the fog is dense, so use caution traveling early this morning. The fog will burn off during the mid to perhaps late morning.

Skies will be mixed for the midday and afternoon hours. Sometimes it will be sunnier, while other times clouds will roll in. No rain is expected today, though, and winds will be nearly calm.

Afternoon highs will reach the low and mid 70s. Generally speaking, it will be warmer to the west than the east. Be sure to check your zip-code forecast for the specifics for your town.

Clouds will gradually increase tonight and winds will pick up from the south and southwest. Temperatures will hold in the 60s for most areas as a result.

A few showers will move through in the predawn hours. Most of Friday should then be dry until new activity develops late in the afternoon. These showers will continue into the evening. A couple rumbles of thunder will be possible with both batches of showers.

Most areas should make it into the mid 70s on Friday, and a few could even reach the upper 70s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday october 14 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Strong Front Saturday

South winds will increase Friday night and into early Saturday, when a few gusts over 30 mph are likely.

A few scattered showers will be possible early Saturday, but most areas will be dry until a strong cold front moves from west to east through the region.

This front will be accompanied by a burst of rain, gusty winds, and a quick drop in temperature. The rain will come down heavily for a short time. Steady light to moderate rain may fall for another couple hours behind the initial burst.

The timing of this band of rain has trended a bit early and now seems most likely during the late morning to early afternoon hours. The earlier passage would mean temperatures failing to reach 70 ahead of the front. This, in turn, should help keep the wind gusts along the front below severe levels.

The timing of the rain band is still a bit uncertain, though, so this situation will need to be monitored.

Behind the front, temperatures will drop into the 50s Saturday afternoon and then into the 40s Saturday night.

Rain showers on Sunday will initially be contained to the favored lake effect areas east-southeast of the Great Lakes. By midday, the showers will expand across the region, becoming numerous for the afternoon.

With the clouds and showers, high temperatures will mostly range from 50 to 55 degrees. Northwest winds will be steady, but do not look as strong as previously expected, with gusts remaining under 30 mph.

Lake showers will continue Sunday night and into early Monday before high pressure builds in. Monday afternoon will trend sunnier. Monday may end up being the windiest upcoming day with northwest wind gusts over 35 mph possible.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny and warmer. After another day with highs in the mid 50s Monday, look for low 60s to return on Tuesday. Wednesday may push into the upper 60s with sun and clouds mixing.

Another front will move through on Thursday, sending temperatures back to the 50s. Some higher elevations on Friday may not even get to 50 degrees.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday october 14 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.