Cold fronts start to chip away at the warmth

finger lakes weather forecast thursday april 14 2022 warm cold front showers
Temperatures will be much warmer this morning than this afternoon as a cold front moves through with some rain showers. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Afternoon Showers

The first in a series of cold fronts will move through the Finger Lakes this afternoon.

Out ahead of the front, temperatures are off to a warm start. With clear skies and south winds, there will be little to keep the temperature in check this morning.

It should be easy to warm into the 70s before lunchtime, though clouds will begin to increase later this morning. By noon, a band of showers will be pushing through the region.

This band will start to intensify as it moves into the I-81 corridor in the early afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible. More showers will also begin to develop behind the initial line, with precipitation lingering as late as 4 or 5 PM for the eastern half of the region.

Winds will turn to the west as the front moves through just behind the initial narrow line of rain. Temperatures will quickly tumble into the low and mid 50s. Where it is rainy, some upper 40s may even be possible.

Those winds will also be briefly blustery as the front moves through with an hour or two of 30 mph gusts.

Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn back to the south. Still, temperatures will end up ranging from the mid 30s in the Southern Tier to the low 40s in the plains south of Lake Ontario.

Southwest winds will become rather strong on Friday, with speeds up to 20 mph and gusts of 40-50 mph. The strongest winds will come during the midday hours.

Temperatures should push into the low 60s Friday as clouds gradually increase. A few showers will be possible late in the day as a cold front creeps southward toward the region.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday april 14 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cold and Unsettled

That front will take most of Saturday to move through the Finger Lakes. As a result, precipitation will be common on Saturday, but especially during the midday and afternoon hours.

Temperatures will be falling on Saturday, but there remains a high degree of uncertainty about how warm it gets in the morning, and how cold it gets in the afternoon.

There are now hints showing up on some of the models that the front may move slow enough for cold air to establish itself on the backside of the front before precipitation ends. Areas of snow may be possible Saturday afternoon and evening as a result.

This remains highly uncertain and sensitive to small shifts in temperature and the frontal position and speed.

Snow will be more likely on Sunday as a spray of flurries and showers develops, partially off Lake Ontario. The snow will mix with and change to rain during the afternoon as temperatures claw their way into the low and mid 40s. Northwest winds will gust at 30-40 mph throughout the day.

There will be a brief window for quieter weather Sunday night and most of the daytime hours Monday. Temperatures may even make it to around 50 degrees for a time Monday before the next weather system moves in.

Much of the precipitation from this system will move in Monday night. Again, this could lead to some areas of snow, particularly in the higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Central New York. Uncertainty is also once again very high.

Tuesday is likely to be another chilly, raw day with scattered snow and rain showers.

Temperatures will remain below average for the later part of the week, though 50s will become a bit more common. Some additional precipitation, falling as rain, is possible at some point.

There are hints on the models that some warmer weather may try to move in after next weekend. However, the spread in temperatures shown on the models is large. So, while warmer weather is possible, it is not a certainty at this point.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday april 14 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.