Early Week Weather
A series of weather systems will keep the weather active this week, but a weak jet stream aloft will prevent any major intrusions of cold or warm air.
One such weak frontal boundary will move through the Finger Lakes today, triggering a few scattered showers.
The best chances for rain will come through the late morning hours, though some additional stray showers will pop up this afternoon, mainly for areas east of Cayuga Lake.
None of the rain today will be heavy or particularly long-lasting. A few glimpses of the sun may be possible between the showers, but for the most part, it will be cloudy.
High temperatures today will reach near or just above 60 degrees for most areas. Average highs for early May are in the low 60s, so this is right on target.
Winds will be southerly this morning with speeds of 5-10 mph. This afternoon, the wind will turn to the west, northwest, and north, with little change in wind speed.
Some breaks in the clouds are possible tonight and it should remain dry. Much of Tuesday will be similar, only clouds will tend to thicken and increase through the morning and into the afternoon.
A band of rain showers will move through late Tuesday afternoon, mostly after 4 PM. This will be followed by more widespread and continuous showers Tuesday evening and overnight. A few rumbles of thunder, accompanied by some brief downpours, will also be possible.
Winds will be back to the south by Tuesday morning with daytime speeds under 10 mph. Those winds will pick up during the evening with gusts over 30 mph possible, especially in higher elevations.
The south winds will help push temperatures into the upper 60s Tuesday afternoon before the rain moves in. Nighttime temperatures will also be propped up by the wind and clouds, with 50s for much of the region throughout the night.
A few showers will linger on Wednesday. Like today, much of the rain will be in the morning, but some afternoon showers in the eastern areas will also be possible. Highs Wednesday will be in the low 60s.
Late Week and Weekend Weather
Thursday looks like the sunniest, quietest weather day of the week.
Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds, though thin clouds may end up covering much of the sky. No rain is expected, and temperatures will be seasonably pleasant. Look for afternoon highs in the mid 60s after morning lows around 40.
The weather on Friday and Saturday is highly uncertain. A frontal boundary will approach from the southwest, but there are significant questions about how close it gets to our region.
My current thinking is that Friday is the more likely of the two days to stay dry. Saturday, on the other hand, has a better chance for rain. This is far from set in stone, though. On both days, areas further south and west will have higher chances for rain.
The rain will also impact temperatures. A rainier day may end up with highs in the 50s, while a dry day could see temperatures rising further into the 60s.
This uncertain setup should begin to clear up over the next couple of days.
Sunday looks less likely to have rain than either Friday or Saturday. Temperatures should remain seasonable in the 60s.
Dry and increasingly warm weather is looking favorable for the first half of next week. Later in the week, pop-up thunderstorms may become possible as highs push through the 70s and possibly towards 80.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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