Uncertain weather this week on edge of heat dome

finger lakes weather forecast monday june 13 2022 sunny heat dome thunderstorms uncertain forecast
Thunderstorms will be possible during the middle and end of the week, but the chances are uncertain in a highly complex weather pattern. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Early Week Weather

An early morning cold front is moving through the Finger Lakes with an area of cloudiness.

While nothing is showing on radar, a brief bit of drizzle cannot be ruled out as these clouds move through. The clouds should dissipate during the mid-morning hours, leaving sun-filled skies in their wake.

The rest of the day will be quiet and sunny, with just a few thin clouds from time to time. Temperatures will be near or just below average, topping out mostly in the mid 70s but with a few pockets of low 70s.

Thin clouds will increase some this evening and especially overnight. Lows will reach the low and mid 50s.

Beyond that, the weather becomes much more uncertain thanks to the overall weather pattern across the eastern two-thirds of the county.

A large dome of heat has been building across the middle of the nation and will continue to expand northward and eastward. It is a classic summertime pattern that often yields long-lasting complexes of thunderstorms along the periphery of the dome.

Early this morning, a complex of thunderstorms was located over southern Minnesota. This complex will move east into the Upper Great Lakes, and either persist or spawn a new complex late this afternoon and evening.

By Tuesday morning, this complex will probably be moving into Pennsylvania, but the exact location is still uncertain. Notably, there has been a northward trend in the models with this complex, and parts of the western Southern Tier could end up with rain tomorrow morning. Any further northward jog could bring rain to more of our region.

Not only is there a question of rain, but the associated cloud cover and, ultimately, temperatures. The timing and location of this cluster is key. At this point, expect most of the rain to remain south of the Finger Lakes, but clouds will be plentiful through the morning and into at least the early afternoon.

Temperatures have a shot at reaching the upper 70s provided the rain remains out of the area. The thicker and more persistent the clouds, not to mention any rainfall, the lower the temperatures.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday june 13 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

More Thunderstorm Chances

The heat will try to build further east during the middle of the week. While it will not get nearly as hot as it will be to our west and south, the atmosphere will become highly unstable and supportive of thunderstorms.

Nailing down the presence of pre-existing thunderstorm complexes, or the atmospheric perturbations left behind by them, it is a highly uncertain task more than 12-24 hours in advance.

There are hints that one such complex could move into the area early Wednesday morning. Heavy rain and lightning would be the primary threats from this if it occurs.

Likewise, Wednesday late afternoon and evening will need to be monitored. With highs pushing into the 80s and high dewpoints around 70 degrees, the atmosphere will be primed for thunderstorm development. The question is whether there will be anything to trigger the activity.

Thursday could likewise be a stormy day, but the best chance at this point seems to be near or after sunset. That can certainly change, though. There will be plenty of fuel for thunderstorms with an added ingredient of some modest winds in the atmosphere.

It takes a lot of things coming together just right for a major severe weather event to unfold. There are several chances this week, though that is not a guarantee that everything will line up.

As far as the heat goes, the best chance for some places to reach 90 degrees will be on Thursday. Dewpoints will remain around 70 degrees, making it feel very muggy.

A cold front will move through on Friday. Showers and storms will be possible, but the atmosphere will not have nearly as much fuel for the storms to tap into, so there is less of a concern for significant severe weather then.

Cool air is expected to settle in for the weekend with highs probably sticking to the 60s both Saturday and Sunday despite mostly dry and sunny conditions.

Be sure to check back for updates each day this week as I continue to carefully monitor the weather locally, and across southern Canada, the Great Lakes, and the Midwest. Be sure to either have the app or sign up for email alerts to ensure you have the latest information. Links are below.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday june 13 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.