Morning clouds depart, monitoring Thursday thunderstorm potential

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday juen 14 2022 clouds sun thunderstorms wednesday night thursday
Dry, often sunny weather is expected through Wednesday afternoon before thunderstorms become a concern Wednesday evening and especially late Thursday. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Dry through Wednesday daytime

The Finger Lakes region will remain on the cooler edge of a large dome of heat and humidity over the Upper Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Midwest.

Around the edge of this dome, clusters of thunderstorms will continue to tap into the boundary between hot and humid and cooler, dry air.

One such complex of thunderstorms moved south through Ohio and West Virginia last night, spreading rain showers and a few storms through Pennsylvania.

None of the rain is making it into the Finger Lakes this morning, but thin clouds high in the atmosphere are in place due to the outflow from these storms.

The clouds will dissipate this morning, leaving mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day. Temperatures will be around the seasonal averages with highs in the mid and upper 70s. Dewpoints will remain low in the 50s. A light north wind will blow with speeds around 5 mph.

Clear skies will persist this evening with a few clouds overnight and into Wednesday morning. These clouds should again dissipate during the morning, leaving a mix of sun and fair clouds for the afternoon.

Winds will turn around to the south and southeast on Wednesday with speeds staying around 5 mph. Heat and humidity will start to seep into the region. Most areas should make it into the 80s, but areas along and west of I-390 should break into the upper 80s.

Dewpoints will also be on the rise with mostly low 60s, but upper 60s and low 70s across Steuben, Livingston, and Monroe counties and points westward.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday june 14 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Thunderstorm Chances

The first chance for thunderstorms will come in these western areas Wednesday evening. There will be a brief window where copious amounts of instability to fuel the thunderstorms and impressive wind fields overlap.

The biggest question for Wednesday evening will be whether there is much to trigger thunderstorm development. Anything that does develop will have the potential to become severe. Again, this is mainly for the far western areas of the region, west of Canandaigua Lake.

Some of the storms, if they fire, may spill eastward, but will decrease in intensity with less instability and the deepening of the night.

A stray shower or storm will be possible Thursday morning, but for the most part, sunshine will mix with clouds as blustery south and southwest winds pump heat and humidity into the region. After morning lows well into the 60s, temperatures will shoot through the 70s and 80s during the morning.

Highs will top out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees and would get hotter if thunderstorms were not expected to increase.

Again, the primary limiting factor will be a triggering mechanism. At least scattered storms are expected, though, especially later in the afternoon. Like Wednesday evening, instability will be high and wind profiles favorable for severe weather. The wind profiles will strengthen late in the afternoon and into the evening.

The setup late Thursday is a rarer, but not unheard of, intersection of high instability and favorable wind profiles. All modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, will be possible if storms are able to get a sufficient start.

This is something I will continue to monitor very closely over the next 48 hours. There will be an increase in model data available starting today as some of the higher resolution, but shorter time span models that I particularly look at for thunderstorms begin to make projections into Thursday evening.

A cold front will move through on Friday, but the instability will already be gone. This will result in a few stray showers with highs in the upper 70s.

The weekend will be cool but quiet with plenty of sunshine and highs only in the 60s. To our west, though, heat and humidity will be rebuilding, and early next week we will be back on the edge of the heat dome, monitoring the same potential for intense thunderstorms as this week.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday june 14 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Linda Rae Moesch
    |

    Good, good morning, Drew. We are new to your site, highly recommended by a fan of yours! We sell hay to animal lovers and depend so very much on the forecast. For example, we did not cut yesterday due to rain possibility Wednesday in addition to a lot of predicted cloud cover. What’s needed for success is dry, dry hay which takes a perfect three days! We bale only quality hay so, unfortunately, conditions need be perfect. That and weather – you see how hard it is to succeed! Anyhow, we may need your opinion once in a while and insist on mailing a donation before we ask. Actually, rather mail a check. Don’t like to give credit card info on sites. Address, please, and good, good days to you. David and Linda Rae Moesch.

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      Hi Linda! While I don’t do hay myself, we have goats and buy our hay from local farmers, so I can certainly understand and appreciate how tricky getting that three-day stretch can be! Please feel free to ask me for the specifics you need at any time!

      I really appreciate your generosity and support. Donations make up the majority of the funding I need to be able to do this, so every bit means so much to me. You can mail a check, made out to Finger Lakes Weather LLC, to PO Box 326, Groton, NY 13073. Thank you so much once again!