Temperatures soar this week ahead of hope for rain

finger lakes weather forecast monday august 1 2022 hot dry weather
Thursday will be the hottest day of the week, if not the year, with highs potentially eclipsing 95 degrees. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Early Week Weather

The month of August will get off to a hot start this week thanks to a persistent area of high pressure off the coast of the Southeastern United States.

A light southwest wind will blow today between this high and a weak low pressure system tracking across southern Canada. These winds will help temperatures tack on a few more degrees over yesterday’s highs.

For most areas, this will mean temperatures reaching the mid and upper 80s this afternoon. A few higher elevations will stick to the low 80s.

Skies will be the typical summertime mix of sun and fair weather clouds. No rain is expected during the daytime hours, but a few scattered showers will be possible this evening and through the overnight. The rain should be contained to small, brief showers and many areas will see little to no rainfall.

Tuesday will be an exception to the hot weather surrounding it. Cloud cover should be plentiful, and spits of showers will linger throughout the day. The majority of the time, it will not be raining. Again, when it does rain, it will be very light and typically brief.

Northwest winds will also blow at 5-10 mph, teaming up with the clouds to hold temperatures to the upper 70s and low 80s. Any breaks of afternoon sun could nudge temperatures up a bit more.

Tuesday night will be comfortable with lows in the 55-60 degree range. By dawn Wednesday, winds will be coming in from the due south.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday august 1 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Hot, then Stormy

The heat will be turned on over our area Wednesday and especially Thursday.

Wednesday should be full of sunshine and a few fair-weather clouds. The south wind will blow at around 5 mph. Temperatures will climb to levels we have seen several times this summer with many areas near or just above 90 degrees.

Humidity levels on Wednesday will remain reasonably low with dewpoints in the 50s. This should keep the apparent temperature almost identical to the actual temperature.

The wind will pick up a bit Wednesday night with speeds increasing to near 10 mph. A deck of high, thin clouds may also move in, casting a blanket over the region. As a result, it will be a warm, muggy night as dewpoints also increase. Lows ranging through the 70s are likely, with some areas in and around Rochester possibly only just getting below 80 degrees overnight.

That will get things off to the races Thursday, though there is still a bit of uncertainty.

Assuming the most likely scenario, a rain free afternoon, temperatures should push into the mid 90s for many areas. Even the typically cooler higher elevations should break into the low 90s.

Dewpoints could be well into the 60s on Thursday, which could drive the heat index towards 100 degrees in some areas.

There is still a chance for a late front to trigger some daytime showers and thunderstorms, which would bring some relief to the heat. More likely, these will hold off until at least Thursday evening and Thursday night.

The incoming front may get hung up over the region, bringing hope for some much-needed showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week. The details are sketchy this far out, though.

With the increasing chances for rain by the weekend, temperatures will be held to the 80s. There are hints that a new pattern of comfortable temperatures and chances for rain may set up by the latter half of next week and into Mid-August.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday august 1 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Cdr John Gregoire

    would you please publish the drought stats as they change? Tx

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      I will as time allows and as conditions change. In the latest report, there was no change in our region.