Stray afternoon showers, but no meaningful rain this week

finger lakes weather forecast monday august 15 2022 sun clouds showers
Rain showers are in the forecast for much of the week, but rain amounts will remain minimal and many areas will be dry much of the time. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Early Week Weather

The weather pattern over the next few days will be characterized by a lack of any significant weather systems taking control.

High pressure centered north of the Great Lakes and low pressure over the Ohio River Valley will both have a glancing effect on our weather. In the upper atmosphere, a persistent but weak low will hang around the northeastern United States.

The day-to-day weather will thus be driven by the daytime heating cycle and any weak impulses of energy that meander through the area. The result will be some spotty showers, but no significant rainfall.

Today, just a few afternoon showers are expected to pop up. Many areas will probably not see any rain, and those that do will see very low rainfall amounts and only brief periods of rain. The rain will drift from east to west in the weak flow between the high and the low. A few showers may linger into the early evening, but will dissipate quickly.

Winds will be light and variable, but most commonly with an east or southeasterly component. Top gusts will be under 15 mph.

High temperatures this afternoon will reach around 80 degrees. Dewpoints will be in the 50s, so humidity levels will remain comfortable for most.

There will be very little difference in the weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will remain weak, temperatures will reach around 80 degrees, and pop up afternoon showers will be possible. There is a little uncertainty with how many showers pop up tomorrow and the rain could be a bit more widespread than today. The same goes for Wednesday.

Still, on any given day, there will be plenty of areas that see no rain at all, or only just enough to barely wet the pavement.

Besides the showers, nighttimes will trend towards becoming clear, mornings will be sunny, and sun will mix with the clouds the rest of the time.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday august 15 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Warm Push

Thursday should have fewer showers than Tuesday or Wednesday, and there is a chance it may turn out to be mostly shower-free. Temperatures may take a small dip, with most places not quite reaching 80 degrees.

The persistent upper level low will pack up and leave by Friday and a more typical weather pattern will take hold.

This will open the area up to warmer temperatures. Highs on Friday should be into the mid 80s, while Saturday should reach the upper 80s, provided there is no rain.

The rain and thunderstorms chances will increase on Sunday, but highs should still make it at least into the mid 80s.

Dewpoints through the weekend will poke into the low 60s, so it may feel a little humid to some.

A meandering low will move through the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic early next week. This should bump up our chances for rain. With more moisture in place compared to early this week, there will be a better chance for some beneficial rain amounts… but it is still a long way off, so confidence is low and a healthy bit of skepticism is understandable.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday august 15 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.