Waves of showers and storms Monday into Tuesday

finger lakes weather forecast monday septembe 12 2022 rain thunderstorms downpours
Rainfall amounts will be highly variable with localized downpours, which could result in a few pockets of minor flooding. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Localized Downpours

An area of low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will slowly meander east-northeast over the next couple of days, keeping our weather unsettled.

Waves of showers and storms are expected as pieces of energy rotate around the low. A few stray showers will be possible this morning, but the better chance for rain today will come in the afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop over the region during the mid afternoon hours. Individualized storm cells may combine into some small clusters, and several of these clusters may be possible through the evening hours.

Most areas should see at least some rain today or tonight, but rainfall amounts will greatly vary. On the low end, there will probably be pockets of rainfall totaling less than a quarter inch. On the high end, localized amounts over two inches are possible. Most areas will be between one-quarter and three-quarters of an inch.

There is a small chance for some localized flooding if slow-moving, heavy downpours impact the same area repeatedly. Likewise, there is also a small chance that a few of the storms could have some localized strong winds.

The best chance for some sunshine today will come in the midday and early afternoon hours. During this time, temperatures should top out in the mid 70s with a few pockets sticking to the low 70s. Winds will be light out of the southwest this morning but will become nearly calm during the afternoon and evening.

Showers and storms will taper off and move out during the later evening hours, but some new showers will be possible during the predawn hours. These will continue into Tuesday morning. These showers should be more scattered and less intense than the rain this afternoon.

One final wave will be possible late Tuesday afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, but this rain should be quicker to come and go and does not look as widespread as today’s rain.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be a touch lower than today with highs near or just above 70 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday september 12 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Drying Out

By Wednesday, the low will be pulling away from the area. Sunshine will mix with the clouds, helping highs get back to the mid 70s. A cold front late in the day will touch off a few stray showers, especially over the eastern Finger Lakes. Most areas will probably not see rain, though.

Skies will clear Wednesday night as cold air builds in from the north. Overnight lows will be widespread in the 40s Wednesday night, and high temperatures on Thursday will struggle to reach the mid 60s. It will be sunny, though, with few if any clouds in sight.

Thursday night will also be chilly, with lows again down into the 40s. I would not be surprised to see a few cold pockets flirt with dipping below 40 degrees.

Warm air will make its way back into the region, but the speed with which it does so is uncertain. My 7-day forecast graphic tends toward a slower return, with mid 60s Friday, low 70s Saturday, and low 80s by Sunday.

If the warm air returns quicker, those temperatures should be bumped up a day, with 70s Friday and 80s by Saturday.

Once it arrives, the warmer air should stick around for a few days, with dry warm conditions through the first half of next week. Rain chances will increase and temperatures will retreat late next week and into the weekend.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday september 12 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.