Warming trend after sunny but chilly Thursday

finger lakes weather forecast thursday september 15 2022 clear cool high pressure
Cool air will stick around for today and tonight before a quick turnaround brings highs back near 80 by Saturday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Cool Air

A cool, Canadian high pressure system has built into the region, dislodging the early week low that kept our weather unsettled.

This morning, the center of the high pressure was north of the Upper Great Lakes. With a clockwise flow of air around the high, the Finger Lakes region is directly in the path of the coolest air.

Most areas are starting the day between 45-50 degrees, though there are more areas below 45 than there are above 50. Skies are clear and will remain mostly sunny throughout the day. Only a few stray clouds here or there are expected.

The north winds ahead of the high pressure system will more than counteract the sunshine. High temperatures today will mostly be in the low 60s with some pockets pushing towards the mid 60s, but probably not above 65 degrees.

The wind will be strongest this morning with speeds of 5-10 mph. Through the afternoon, wind speeds will drop and the direction will turn to the northwest. The wind will go calm this evening as the high passes overhead, then will turn to the southwest with speeds under 5 mph towards dawn Friday.

As the high passes through, some thin clouds may also build in after midnight. The clouds and light wind may be just enough to halt the radiational cooling overnight, keeping temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than they would be otherwise.

Nonetheless, it will still be a chilly night, with temperatures quickly falling this evening and ultimately coming close to, or getting cooler, than it was last night. For most areas, this means low and mid 40s. A few pockets of upper 30s are not out of the question, mainly in the western Southern Tier and southern Cortland County.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday september 15 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Warmer, Wetter Weather

The wind on Friday will remain very light and the direction will end up variable. However, warmer air will still move in by default as the cold pocket associated with the high moves out.

There should be plenty of sunshine once again on Friday, but thin clouds will have more of a presence. These clouds may even filter some of the sunshine at times, especially later in the day.

High temperatures will return to the 70s, with mid 70s for areas mostly west of Cayuga Lake with low 70s to the east.

Thin clouds will be plentiful Friday night with a light south wind redeveloping. This should hold temperatures in the 50s, with low 50s in the Southern Tier and Central New York and mid 50s elsewhere.

Saturday will see more clouds than Friday, but some sun will still poke in and out of the cloud cover. A frontal boundary will take shape to our north, so you may see some showers on radar north of Lake Ontario and into the Adirondacks. These are not expected to make their way south yet.

High temperatures on Saturday will jump again, with most places a couple of degrees on either side of 80 degrees. As usual, the warmest temperatures will be found across the northern Finger Lakes and between Elmira and Binghamton, while the higher elevations between Syracuse and Cortland and in the western Southern Tier will be coolest.

The weather on Sunday remains uncertain as the frontal boundary to our north sags further south. The chances for rain will increase as the day goes on, but there is a chance most of the showers may hold off until the evening and overnight. Continue to monitor the forecast if you have outdoor plans, especially in the afternoon.

Monday holds the best chance for rain and thunderstorms as the front moves through the region. The evolution of the rain is still a bit unclear but there will probably be widespread precipitation at some point during the day.

A few more showers will be possible into Tuesday. Wednesday at this point looks dry, but another front will move through later next week. Temperatures early in the week should stick to the 70s, but a brief warm up ahead of the front will be possible. Behind that late week front, a longer-lasting shot of cool air will move in.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday september 15 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.