Lake Enhanced Showers
Low pressure continues to meander northeastward at a slow pace and is centered over the St. Lawrence Seaway this morning.
Cool west-southwest winds are producing impressive amounts of lake effect rain downwind of the Great Lakes. In the immediate Finger Lakes region, some occasional showers off Lake Erie are drifting eastward into the region.
The showers will be isolated this morning but should increase in coverage this afternoon thanks to some extra energy from the daytime heating cycle. Even then, the rain will be hit or miss, and individual showers should be short-lived.
Like yesterday, a few short-lived thunderstorms are possible, which could contain small hail.
Wind speeds will be around 10 mph, gradually becoming more westerly as the day goes on. Wind gusts will peak at 25-30 mph, mainly during the morning hours. Temperatures will be around 60 degrees for most, with mid and upper 50s in higher elevations.
The rain showers will diminish for a few hours this evening, but as a front moves through, winds will turn to the north-northwest. This will bring in some fresh showers off Lake Ontario after midnight. Scattered showers will persist into Wednesday morning and may even linger for much of Wednesday afternoon as well.
Overnight temperatures tonight should be held in check somewhat by the increasing clouds and showers from Lake Ontario. Most areas should be between 45-50 degrees, but if enough clearing takes hold in the Southern Tier, low 40s or even some upper 30s are possible.
Wednesday will be cool with north-northwest winds blowing at around 10 mph. High temperatures will only reach the mid and upper 50s.
If showers diminish Wednesday afternoon, there may be a small increase in showers Wednesday evening since lake effect tends to favor the nighttime hours with the cooler atmosphere. A few showers Thursday morning are also possible before dry air and high pressure finally move in.
Weather This Weekend
As the high pressure moves in, sunshine will increase on Thursday. However, winds will still be steady from the north with speeds of 5-10 mph. This will hold temperatures down, with another day in the mid and upper 50s.
The high should move overhead Thursday night, leading to clear skies and calm winds. This will be ideal for cooling and temperatures should dive into the 30s for all but the lake-protected shorelines. Frost seems likely, and colder pockets may experience a freeze with temperatures dipping below freezing.
Temperature forecasts usually need some fine-tuning when a few days out, so any slight shifts in the expectations will have an impact on the coverage and severity of any frost. Stay tuned.
Friday will then be a sunny day with temperatures rebounding to the low 60s. Winds will remain nearly calm.
Late in the day, thin overcast on the edge of Hurricane Ian will make its way into our area. This should keep temperatures a bit warmer Friday night, with lows averaging in the low 40s.
The clouds will persist throughout Saturday, though some sunshine may be able to filter through the thin clouds. No rain is expected, though, with highs in the mid 60s.
Forecast confidence is low for Sunday and early next week due to the remains of Ian. However, the trend in the models has been for rain to not reach this far north. For now, I’ve removed the rain from the forecast, but this could certainly still change.
As I said yesterday, though, even if rain from Ian does make it this far north, it does not look as though it would be a widespread, prolonged heavy rain event.
Temperatures should remain in the 60s through the weekend and next week.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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