Breezy with Sun
A broad area of low pressure north of the Great Lakes was responsible for the rain and wind yesterday.
This low will remain stalled out over the next several days, yet will have little additional impact on our weather. This is because dry air has wrapped around the low and into the Finger Lakes.
Skies are mostly clear this morning throughout the region, though there are areas of river valley fog to be aware of if traveling in the Southern Tier this morning. The fog may take a little time to burn off, but it will eventually do so this morning.
By the late morning and midday hours, fair weather clouds will bubble up and mix with the sunshine. These clouds should not overtake the sunshine, nor is any rain expected.
Southwest winds will blow today, increasing to around 10 mph for the midday and first half of the afternoon. Top gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible with the strongest winds west and southwest of I-390 in the western reaches of the region.
Temperatures will rise to around 60 degrees this afternoon. Mid and upper 50s are more likely in the western Southern Tier.
Skies will clear again tonight. Winds will briefly diminish as they turn to the southeast, but will start to strengthen again before midnight. By dawn, wind speeds could be approaching 10 mph. The wind will help keep temperatures mostly in the 40s tonight. A few protected valleys could still slip into the upper 30s.
Saturday will be much the same, only with a small chance for a late afternoon shower. These will be most likely in the northwestern quadrant of the region, across Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, and Wayne counties.
Any rain that falls will be brief and light. The clouds will probably thicken up a bit as these showers make their way through, but like today, much of the day should have at least partial sunshine.
Winds will kick up ahead of the small disturbance responsible for these showers. South and southwest winds will increase all the way to 15-20 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph. These stronger winds will only last for a few hours during the midday and first half of the afternoon.
Temperatures on Saturday will get a boost from the winds, reaching highs in the mid and upper 60s. A few places may even flirt with 70 degrees if the sun remains out long enough. This is not far off from the average highs for this time of the year, which are in the low 60s.
Cold Air Invades
Behind Saturday’s small system, southwest winds will remain in place through Saturday night into Sunday. These winds will bring in a foretaste of some cooler air.
With mostly clear skies developing once again Saturday night, temperatures will mostly drop to the 35-40 degree range. Some lakeshore and urban areas will stay above 40, while cold pockets across the Southern Tier may dip below 35 degrees.
Sunday will have a mix of sun and clouds. There will probably end up being more clouds than today, but it still should not become totally overcast.
Winds will remain light with speeds at or under 5 mph. High temperatures will mostly stick to the mid and upper 50s, but it would not be surprising to see a few of the normally warmer areas hit 60 degrees.
By Monday, a piece of the persistent low, which by Monday will finally be departing via eastern Canada, will break off and strengthen over the Great Lakes.
Rain showers will be likely as a result. At this time, the morning on Monday looks more favorable for showers than the afternoon, but it may rain at any time. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s much of the day but will drop sharply into the 40s at some point in the latter half of the afternoon.
Cold air will invade thereafter with low pressure only drifting northeastward and remaining over eastern Canada for much of the week.
High temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are unlikely to escape the 40s. Nighttime temperatures will be well into the 30s.
The chances for some snowflakes in the area have decreased for now, however. Lake effect precipitation during the core of the cold air is mostly expected to stay outside of the region. Some showers may work their way in later Wednesday into Thursday, but should mostly fall as rain.
It is still early for positioning the lake effect, especially with a meandering low pressure system determining the atmospheric flow. Precipitation could become more likely again. Even if it does, snow should be limited to a few flakes mixing in and not anything substantial on the ground.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.