Scattered showers Monday bring in a shot of cold air

finger lakes weather forecast monday october 17 2022 cloudy showers cold air
High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will mostly stick to the 40s. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil, Groton]

Meandering Low Pressure

An area of low pressure is strengthening this morning over Lake Huron and will meander around the region for the next few days.

Showers are scattered about the Finger Lakes early Monday morning, in particular across the northern half of the region. These northern areas will continue to see periods of steadier rain this morning while the rest of the area sees on and off, hit-or-miss showers.

By this afternoon, the overall coverage of rain showers should diminish as some dry air wraps around the low and into the area. The showers will probably not completely dissipate, though. Small, brief showers will continue to be possible.

Between the showers this afternoon, some breaks of sunshine will also be possible. In fact, there is a slightly higher chance of seeing the sun than seeing rain, but a decent enough chance for seeing both.

Temperatures today will push towards the mid 50s this morning, then remain mostly steady this afternoon. Southwest winds will set up, with speeds over 10 mph from roughly Elmira to Penn Yan to Rochester and points westward. Lighter winds are expected to the east.

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Dry air will deepen tonight, causing skies to clear out at times. In the far western Finger Lakes, some lake effect clouds from Lake Erie will be possible, along with a few rain or snow showers.

Temperatures will fall into the low and mid 30s throughout the region. Areas that have not yet seen frost have a good chance of seeing it tonight, or on one of the subsequent nights.

The regional weather Tuesday and Wednesday will mostly be driven by lake effect enhanced by the meandering low pressure. However, with the low to our northwest, most of the lake effect will remain outside of the Finger Lakes.

The best chances for precipitation these two days will be during the afternoon as some pop-up showers develop in the daytime heating cycle. Given that, the chances of seeing snowflakes in the Finger Lakes will be minimal, but any stray showers that pass through during the nighttime hours could mix with some snow.

Despite these few afternoon showers, there should be plenty of sunshine throughout both days.

Winds on Tuesday will be similar to today, but on Wednesday will increase throughout the region. Widespread southwest winds of up to 15 mph are expected with gusts of 30-35 mph.

High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will range from around 50 degrees in the northern Finger Lakes to the low 40s in the western Southern Tier. Most areas will be in the mid and upper 40s. Lows will continue to be in the low and mid 30s.

finger lakes weather 7 day forecast monday october 17 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Transition Back to Mild

By Thursday, the low will begin to dissipate and high pressure will push in from the southeastern United States. Since the low is dissipating more than it is moving out, this transition will keep the atmosphere unsettled.

While rain is not expected on Thursday, skies may end up being quite cloudy. Southwest winds will continue to be blustery as well, particularly in the morning when they may match Wednesday. The winds will gradually diminish in the afternoon.

Temperatures on Thursday will be held back by the lack of sun with highs in the low and mid 40s. Skies will clear by the evening, however, and temperatures will again end up below 35 degrees for most of the region Friday morning.

The cold air will then vacate the region and temperatures will quickly reverse course. Highs on Friday should reach the mid 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be from the south, but speeds should stay under 10 mph and gusts around or under 20 mph.

Even with clear skies at night, southerly winds will keep temperatures in the 40s for Saturday morning. Skies will be sun-filled and afternoon highs should jump into the mid 60s. Sunday will have some clouds moving in, but highs will remain well into the 60s.

Some showers will be possible early next week, but temperatures overall look to remain mild for most of the rest of October.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7 day forecast monday october 17 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.