Early Week Weather
High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley states such as Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee is nosing its way northeast towards the Finger Lakes region.
This extension of the high pressure is sneaking in between two low pressures, one over southern Canada and another just off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Some moisture associated with these lows, and enhanced by northwest winds over the Great Lakes, has the area locked into some low-level morning cloudiness to start today. Through the morning, winds should turn more to the west or southwest, which should gradually erode away at the clouds.
Assuming this occurs, the afternoon will turn mostly sunny, at least for the early and mid parts. Late in the day, some new cloudiness will be possible as a subtle front associated with the Canadian system approaches.
This front should bring clouds and some light snow showers to the area this evening. Snow accumulations of more than a powder-sugar coating are not expected.
Temperatures this afternoon will mainly be between about 35-40 degrees. As usual, the higher elevations will be coolest, while the broader valleys, urban centers, and near lake locations will be warmest.
Overnight temperatures will be a bit warmer than last night with the persistent clouds and flurries. Most areas will be just under 30 degrees.
A few Tuesday morning lake effect snow showers will be possible, mainly across northern Cayuga and Wayne counties. Locally a half-inch or so of snow could accumulate.
Otherwise, Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and a touch cooler, though still slightly above average. Highs will reach the mid 30s with light northwest and north winds.
The clouds may break up some Tuesday night, allowing temperatures to range through the 20s. Any clearing that lasts into early Wednesday will quickly be overtaken by increasing clouds as the next weather system approaches. Highs on Wednesday will be around 40 degrees with south winds of 5-10 mph.
Unsettled Late Week
A well-organized low pressure system is expected to lift into the Great Lakes late this week. While there is still some uncertainty with the track of this system, the model trends have been increasingly pointing to a warm, wet system for our area.
The first batch of precipitation will be along a warm front on Thursday. This may start off as a little snow if it moves in early enough in the morning, but for the most part, it should fall as rain. This rain does not look too heavy during the day.
A better chance for some heavier rain will come Thursday night as the low draws near. Early indications are for a half-inch and locally higher amounts Thursday night.
Temperatures will rise into the mid 40s on Thursday and stay fairly mild through the night. Whether this means a slight dip to the low 40s, or further rises, is still a bit uncertain. Temperatures in the 40s should hold into Friday, at least early on.
At some point, a cold front will move through, and temperatures will fall. Rain showers will turn to snow showers. There is a small chance for some accumulation, especially as snow showers persist into Saturday.
This weather system will be on the breezy side, but not too excessively windy. Top gusts are currently projected to be around 30 mph.
By Sunday, this system should be heading east, out of the area. Temperatures will be close to average behind it, with highs Saturday and Sunday around 30 degrees and lows Sunday morning around 20 degrees.
The colder air will be quick to vacate the area, with highs for most of next week sticking closer to 40 degrees. Rain will be possible toward the latter half of the week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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