Friday-Saturday Snow Details
Low pressure is situated overhead this morning while a secondary low is developing off the New England coast.
Cold air has not yet filtered into the region and will be slow to do so today. As such, many areas are starting at or above 35 degrees, with mainly rain showers in the Finger Lakes.
As the second low takes over, cooler air will start to gradually work in. Surface temperatures may only lose a couple of degrees, but the overall temperature profile will become increasingly supportive of snow over rain.
Even as the rain changes to snow throughout the day, little to no accumulation is expected during the daytime hours, and road conditions should remain just wet. This will remain the case until temperatures drop below freezing this evening.
The precipitation today will be on and off. Across roughly the northern half of the region, there will be fewer breaks than across the southern half.
Winds will shift from the west this morning to the northwest this afternoon. Wind speeds may locally be over 10 mph with a few gusts reaching 30 mph.
The snow may be more widespread for a couple of hours early this evening with a few localized, embedded bands of heavier lake effect. The snow should begin to become lighter and more scattered by midnight, with a diminishing trend through the overnight.
Locally, two or three inches may accumulate, with a more widespread coating to an inch by Saturday morning.
Lingering flurries will be possible Saturday morning. Locally, another inch of fluffy snow will be possible, but most areas will see little to no additional accumulation. Winds will shift to the west by the afternoon, removing the chances for lake effect snow altogether.
Sunshine on Saturday will be limited to a few brief glimpses in the afternoon. Temperatures will start out ranging from the mid 20s in higher elevations to near 30 along the lake shores. Afternoon highs will be in the low and mid 30s.
Snow Chances Sunday Night, Midweek
Most of Sunday will be quiet, albeit with increasing and thickening clouds. Any sunshine will be limited to very early in the day.
Temperatures will start out a little cooler, especially if there are some breaks in the clouds. Expect lows to range through the 20s, but with most areas somewhere around 25 degrees. Afternoon temperatures will warm to the mid and upper 30s.
Snow is expected to arrive in the late afternoon or evening hours as an area of low pressure tracks from the Gulf of Mexico to the New England coast.
The weather models are following their typical pattern of drifting back westward a couple of days before the event and confidence is increasing at some accumulating snow in the Finger Lakes.
Areas further south and east will have the best shot at several inches, though light accumulations of a couple of inches seem likely throughout the region. I will likely publish a snow map at some point Saturday with my exact expectations. Currently, I expect maximum amounts in the Finger Lakes to approach 6 inches, again most likely in the southeast corner of the region (southeast of Ithaca).
The steadiest and heaviest snow will fall during the overnight period Sunday night. By Monday morning, snow should be lighter and tapering off. Most of Monday may be limited to scattered flurries, but the early morning commute will be messy, anyway.
Tuesday will be a quiet day with some scattered snow showers. The next system will roll in for Wednesday. Precipitation type will be a concern with forecasting this system, but several inches of snow will be possible before any change over to sleet or rain.
At this point, it obviously remains too early to tell. If the models take their typical jog eastward over the next couple of days, you may start seeing more calls for significant snow in our area. Do not be too quick to jump on this. In some ways, I find the models 5-7 days out a bit more reliable in these situations than 3-4 days out.
Regardless, as with almost all winter weather events, the details will not really clear up until a day or two in advance, if they ever become clear at all. Be wary of premature forecasts that change every 6-12 hours, chasing each latest model run without consideration to the overall trends in the models and their biases.
A quieter weather pattern looks possible behind the midweek system, with temperatures generally around average during the day, and around or slightly above average at night.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
