Thursday-Friday Weather
The low pressure system that prompted yesterday’s wintry weather is situated over Lake Ontario this morning.
The vast majority of the precipitation with this system is far ahead of it, moving through eastern Canada and New England. However, there is a little bit of moisture wrapping around the backside of the low in the form of some snow showers across Western New York.
These snow showers will move through the Finger Lakes this morning, particularly closer to Lake Ontario, where some extra lake moisture will help produce the snow. Meanwhile, across the Southern Tier, only a few flurries are expected.
The snow will not amount to much today, with even the areas that see more persistent snows only picking up an inch or so. A bigger story will be the wind.
As the low pulls away to the northeast, west-northwest winds will increase across the Finger Lakes this morning. Wind speeds will blow at or over 15 mph into the early afternoon before gradually diminishing late this afternoon. Many areas will see top gusts over 35 mph, and a few places may hit 40 mph.
These winds will bring in cooler air and temperatures will drop a few degrees from early morning highs in the mid 30s. Much of the day will instead be spent around 30 degrees. After sunset, temperatures will fall back into the 20s with low and mid 20s by dawn Friday.
Scattered lake snows will be present overnight and may briefly organize into a small but steadier band southeast of Lake Ontario. This is most likely in far northeastern Wayne, far northern Cayuga, and northern Onondaga counties. Locally, a few inches of snow will be possible.
Lake Erie will also be producing some snow, which will stay mainly out of the Finger Lakes overnight. However, Friday morning, winds will turn to the west, then southwest, and some of the residual snow will traverse through the Finger Lakes. A quick burst could put down a half-inch or so.
This lake effect will reduce the chances for a few pokes of sunshine before a new batch of cloudiness works in. Still, a lucky few may get a little glimpse of the sun for a few minutes here or there on Friday.
Winds will stick to a southwesterly direction but with light speeds under 10 mph. High temperatures will mostly be in the low 30s.
Weekend and Next Week
A small disturbance will move through the area Friday night and early Saturday. Scattered snow showers will accompany this system with little to no accumulation expected.
Winds will increase as the system moves through, with south-southwest winds Friday night and west-southwest winds Saturday morning. Wind speeds could approach 15 mph with gusts locally over 30 mph.
Skies should remain cloudy after the snow showers move on, but high temperatures will push into the mid and upper 30s.
As we head into Sunday, a frontal boundary will set up to our north. This front will slowly, over the course of several days, drop southward as several waves of atmospheric energy travel along it. This makes the forecast tricky with a lower than usual confidence through the early part of next week.
For Sunday at least, the front should remain to the north. Some light precipitation will drift through, mainly as rain showers, but possibly with some snow mixing in early and/or late in the day. Afternoon highs should make a run at 40 degrees, at least for some of the Finger Lakes.
Monday has high uncertainty as the front moves near or into the area. Some rain will be possible, but the trend will be for cooler air and snow to move in. There is a chance for some light accumulations, especially in the northwestern portions of the region.
The front may clear the area by Tuesday, dropping temperatures into the 20s for daytime highs. Only some scattered lake effect snow showers are expected, at least during the daytime.
A stronger low will move along the front towards the middle of the week. The position of the front will determine if this system impacts our area, or scoots south. A significant, heavy snowfall does not look to be in the works, but there are nearly equal chances this far out for very little snow, a light snowfall, and a moderate snowfall.
With model uncertainty high this far out, there is a small chance that this system could be delayed to Thursday instead. Regardless, cold air will move in behind it, with highs struggling to get into the 20s by next weekend.
It looks to be a short cold snap, though, with highs possibly going back above average by the middle of the following week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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