Mid-Week Weather
Scattered lake effect snow showers dot the Finger Lakes region this morning.
Most of the snow showers are in the northern parts of the region courtesy of Lake Ontario, or across the Southern Tier off of Lake Erie. A narrow strip of clear skies exists between the two areas of lake effect.
Winds will become more northerly this morning, shifting all the activity southward. This wind shift may pick up the Lake Ontario band and bring it south as a slight squall during the mid and late morning hours, especially for the northern half of the region.
As this band weakens and dissipates as it moves south, the rest of the day should be a mix of clouds, a little sun, and stray flurries.
Most areas will see no more than a coating of additional snow today, but a few localized areas, mainly north of the Thruway, may see an inch or two.
High temperatures will be in the low and mid 20s. Winds will weaken as the day goes on and may be nearly calm by the mid and late afternoon hours.
Skies will be clear at times tonight, but clouds will also mix in. After midnight, winds will become westerly, and some lake effect off Lake Erie will drift into the region. A few scattered snow showers will linger into Wednesday morning before southwest winds take everything far to the north.
Wednesday morning temperatures will depend on cloud cover, snowpack, and terrain. Most areas should stick to the low and mid 10s, but localized cold pockets could slip below zero. This is most likely in the western Southern Tier and the hills of Central New York.
Once the winds shift to the southwest Wednesday morning, the rest of the day should be quiet and rather sunny. Wind speeds will be as high as 10 mph and temperatures will reach the mid and upper 20s.
Skies Wednesday night will be mixed as some new clouds try to move in from the south. With southwest winds also in place, temperatures should be a bit warmer than tonight with mid and upper 10s, a few low 20s, and no single-digit or lower cold pockets.
Thursday will have a mix of sun and clouds with highs reaching well into the 30s. It will be a deceptive day that will in no way indicate the harsh changes that will take place Thursday night.
Shot of Arctic Air
Thursday evening, a cold front will drop south across the Finger Lakes. Accompanying this front may be a snow squall. This possibility will become more clear in the next 24-48 hours as shorter-term, higher resolution models more adept to the mechanics involved in snow squall production begin to sample Thursday evening.
Regardless of snow squall development, winds will immediately turn to the northwest and increase behind the front. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph will be possible overnight Thursday and throughout Friday. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be common.
These strong winds will quickly transport a cold air mass into the region. By Friday morning, most areas should be in the mid and upper single digits. Temperatures will mostly hold steady during the day, with few areas even reaching 10 degrees.
Combined with the wind, wind chill values will be between -10 and -20 throughout Friday. Precautions against the cold will be necessary, including avoiding prolonged outdoor exposure, preventing frozen pipes, and providing care for pets and livestock.
Lake effect snow is also likely on Friday, but the strong winds and frigid temperatures may work against heavy accumulations, but a few inches will be possible downwind of the lakes. Whatever does fall will easily blow around, leaving bare ground next to significant drifts.
Road conditions will be messy on Friday with the falling and blowing snow. It will be too cold for road salt to work effectively, so many roads through the countryside will stay snowy.
The wind will diminish Friday night, with speeds around 5 mph by Saturday morning. Some lake effect flurries will continue, and a larger area of lake effect cloud cover may insulate the region somewhat.
If any areas see clear skies Friday night, temperatures have a good shot at falling below -10 degrees. For areas that stay cloudier, temperatures of 0 to -5 are more likely.
Winds will turn to the south Saturday afternoon. Lake effect will end, but some new thin clouds will build in. Temperatures may be able to get close to 20 during the day, but will increase Saturday night well into the 20s.
As quickly as the cold air comes in, it will vanish, with highs pushing all the way to near 40 degrees on Sunday. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds, with dry conditions and mild expected into Monday as well.
Snow looks as though it will be absent next week, with temperatures running above average and any precipitation probably falling as rain.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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