Early Week Snow Showers
A quieter week is ahead as far as the weather goes, with mainly light precipitation and near-average temperatures expected.
An area of high pressure north of the Great Lakes extends southeast over the Finger Lakes region, while a weak low pressure is moving through Missouri. Where the influences of these two systems are clashing, some light snow is falling across the Upper Great Lakes.
Here in the Finger Lakes, some clouds are moving in this morning on the leading edge of this area of unsettled weather. Clouds will be with us much of the day, but no precipitation is expected before sunset.
Temperatures will mostly be in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees this afternoon, which is just a couple degrees above the average highs and well within the expected range of what would be considered typical for early March.
Winds will be light with a northerly direction, flowing out from the high pressure over Canada. Wind speeds should remain around or just over 5 mph during both the daytime and nighttime hours.
A small band of snow will just barely clip the far southwestern Finger Lakes tonight. An inch or so may fall as far north as Dansville, Bath, and Elmira, but only southern Allegany and southwestern Steuben counties are expected to see a couple of inches.
Since this band of snow is small, any small wobbles in its path could bring the snow a few miles further north, or keep it primarily across Pennsylvania. Either way, no major issues are expected here in the Finger Lakes, with the majority of the region seeing nothing more than a few stray flurries overnight.
Nighttime temperatures will drop into the low and mid 20s tonight. Skies will remain cloudy through the night and into Tuesday.
On Tuesday, some atmospheric energy will rotate westward around low pressure off the coast of Maine. This energy will move into the Finger Lakes during the afternoon hours in the form of some light snow showers. These will spread from northeast to southwest and should persist into the evening and possibly early Wednesday.
Most areas should see only a light dusting of snow from these flurries. The best chance for an inch will be in the hills between Syracuse and Cortland.
The wind will pick up substantially on Tuesday, coming in from the northwest at 15-20 mph. Gust of 35-45 mph will be commonplace before gradually decreasing during the nighttime hours. Temperatures will be held down by these winds, with highs in the low 30s.
Late Week Weather
A few flurries will be possible on Wednesday as well, mainly from lake enhancement during the morning and midday hours.
Winds will continue to be from the northwest with speeds around and locally above 10 mph. Gusts will mostly remain just under 30 mph, but the area from Ithaca to Elmira to Binghamton may see a couple gusts reach or break above 30 mph.
Wednesday will remain cool with slightly below average but still very typical early March temperatures. Most valley and urban locations will be near or slightly above 30 degrees, while higher elevations will top out in the upper 20s.
Both Thursday and Friday are looking precipitation-free outside of a few stray, light flurries. Most areas should not see any snow on either day. Clouds will continue to be plentiful, though, with only some breaks of filtered sunshine at most.
Winds will remain out of the northwest on Thursday with speeds around 10 mph. This will keep temperatures cool, with morning lows in the low and mid 20s and afternoon highs in the low 30s.
On Friday, the winds will be lighter and more variable, eventually consolidating to the east, then southeast. Temperatures will get a slight boost with the lack of a northwesterly flow with spot-on average highs in the mid and upper 30s.
Saturday is a day I have been keeping my eye on since the end of last week. The chances for accumulating snow continue to decline, but I kept the probability of a moderate or heavy snow event at 10% each, just to account for the possibility that the trends on the models reverse.
Much more likely is just some light snow showers passing through the area on Saturday. The chances for an inch or two of snow are about equal to seeing no accumulation at this point in time. If it snows, expect highs in the mid 30s. If it stays dry, a few more degrees can be tacked onto the expected high.
Sunday should be a dry day with highs in the upper 30s, assuming there are no major shifts on the models for Saturday’s system. Another very low-probability event is worth keeping a casual eye on for early next week but is not much cause for concern at this point.
The weather pattern has a bit more potential in general for precipitation next week, but still does not look overly impressive and could very well end up as quiet as this week.
Temperatures are not expected to change much, with highs sticking to the 30s through next week and possibly beyond. There are lower than normal chances for both shots of cold or warm air, indicative of the overall quiet weather pattern expected.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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