High pressure along the coast of the Carolinas and low pressure over the middle of the nation are resulting in a broad flow of mild air northward through the eastern United States.
The warm air has not fully arrived yet with a wide variation in temperatures across the Finger Lakes this morning. Some of this is also due to cloud cover, with some areas staying mostly clear overnight and dropping into the 10s this morning, while cloudy areas are as warm as the mid 30s to start today.
Mixed skies are likely throughout the day, with some periods being mostly sunny, and others mostly cloudy. Most of the time, it will be somewhere in between. No precipitation is expected today.
Light southwest winds will blow milder air into the region. Wind speeds will be around 5 mph and gusts will generally stay under 15 mph.
Afternoon highs will range from the mid 40s in higher elevations with a deep snowpack, to around or slightly above 50 degrees in the typically milder valleys which will probably have no snow left after today.
Temperatures will drop back into the mid and upper 30s tonight but will not go any further. Clouds will increase and winds will become more southerly this evening. Wind speeds and gusts may increase slightly, especially over higher terrain.
Temperatures may rise a couple of degrees between midnight and dawn as an area of rain enters the region from the west. This rain will be widespread, but light. The rain will persist into the morning hours and will fall fairly steadily into the early afternoon.
There should be a lull in the rain during the mid-afternoon, but another band of showers will move through during the later afternoon hours.
South winds will blow at around 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph throughout the day Friday. Temperatures should still manage to reach the upper 40s for most areas, and a few 50 degree readings will again be possible.
Rain amounts will generally be between one-quarter and one-half of an inch. Even with snowmelt, this should not cause any flooding concerns.
The final band of rain will be along a cold front. Winds will quickly turn to the west-southwest behind the front and temperatures will fall into the 30s Friday evening.
Cool Weekend, Then More Mild Weather
Southwest winds will persist throughout Saturday, bringing in cool, not warm air.
As usual with southwest winds of this nature, they will be strongest along and west of I-390 in the far western Finger Lakes. Occasional gusts over 40 mph will be possible there, especially in and around Rochester.
Between I-390 and Seneca Lake, gusts will be around 30 mph, with lighter winds to the east of Seneca Lake.
There may be a little sun early on Saturday with temperatures starting out between 25-30 degrees. Clouds will increase later in the afternoon as a small disturbance passes through. Scattered snow showers are likely, with little to no accumulation.
Highs on Saturday will mostly be in the mid 30s. Nighttime temperatures will drop to the upper 10s with some colder pockets. Winds will gradually shift from the southwest to the west-northwest overnight. Some stray snow showers off Lake Erie will impact the northwestern quadrant of the region.
The wind will continue to turn more northwesterly on Sunday with an increase in speed to over 15 mph. Gusts on Sunday will frequently exceed 35 mph.
These winds will bring in cold air with highs struggling, and in many places, failing to reach 30 degrees. With the wind, it will feel like the 10s.
A few snow showers will be possible, especially near Lake Ontario, where some minor accumulations may be possible.
Quiet, mild weather will quickly move back in. After starting in the 10s and low 20s, Monday will see a high back into the mid 40s. Sunshine will mix with some afternoon clouds.
Sunshine is even more likely on Tuesday with highs staying at least in the mid 40s. It will be another chilly morning, though, starting out around 20 degrees.
Wednesday does not look much different, though it should be a few degrees warmer in the morning. Highs will reach the mid 40s, at least, with a mix of sun and clouds.
The weather will remain quiet for the rest of the work week, but next weekend continues to look unsettled. Snow may be possible, but at this very early point in time, rain looks more likely.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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