Showers Thursday as above average temperatures come to an end

finger lakes weather forecast thursday march 23 2023 showers cold front
Rain will increase this afternoon as a late cold front moves through the region. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Cold Front Tonight

A southerly flow between high pressure off the coast of the southeastern United States and low pressure moving across southern Canada has the Finger Lakes region off to a warm start.

Most areas are well into the 40s this morning and a few have even risen back to 50 degrees already.

Some rain showers moved through during the overnight and predawn hours, but the radar is mostly clear early this morning. This lull in the precipitation should continue through most of the morning before rain moves back in early this afternoon.

On and off periods of rain will be likely through the afternoon and will taper off by the early evening. Rainfall amounts will mostly be around a quarter of an inch, but some locally higher pockets upwards of a half inch will be possible.

Temperatures will reach the mid and upper 50s by midday. A few places may even hit 60 degrees. The temperature will cool slightly as the rain settles in for the afternoon, with a sharper drop back into the 40s during the late afternoon. This temperature drop will move from northwest to southeast across the region as a cold front.

South winds will persist today until the cold front passes by, after which northwest winds will take over. Wind speeds will be between 5-10 mph, both before and after the front.

Overnight, the wind will gradually weaken to around 5 mph. It will remain cloudy and a few stray flurries cannot be totally ruled out. Temperatures will make it down into the upper 20s.

Clouds will stick around into Friday as well. Some of the clouds may thin enough for a little sunshine to filter through, especially in the afternoon.

Northwest winds will shift to the north with speeds remaining near or just over 5 mph. This will keep temperatures in the low and mid 40s, which is about where high temperatures average for this time of the year.

finger lakes weather medium range snow outlook thursday march 23 2023 see blog text for pertinent information
Tuedsay night and early Wednesday is the prime chance for snow in the upcoming week, but even then, chances are not very high at this point. Click to enlarge.

Unsettled Pattern Continues

The next weather maker will move in from the southwest during the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday.

Temperatures at this time will be near or just above 30 degrees while warm air moves in aloft. This should lead to a brief period of mixed precipitation. Sleet and freezing rain will probably be more common than snow, but some areas will probably see non-freezing rain from the start.

The best chance for some snow will be in the higher elevations of Cortland and Onondaga Counties. Higher elevations throughout the region will have the greatest chance for a glaze of ice.

This is not expected to be a major event, but travel early on Saturday, and locally even as late as midday, may be a bit slick in areas.

Much of the precipitation will lift northeast out of the region for the afternoon, though the occasional rain shower will still be possible. A secondary batch of rain will move through late along a weak cold front.

Saturday will be windy with southeast winds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph. The strongest gusts will be over higher elevations. Temperatures during the afternoon will make it into the mid 40s and will only drop to the mid 30s overnight.

Sunday will also be windy, this time from the west. The strongest winds will be from about Geneva westward, where wind speeds will be near 20 mph. Gusts over 40 mph are likely in these areas, especially during the morning and early afternoon.

To the east, it will still be blustery, but gusts will mostly stay under 40 mph.

High temperatures on Sunday will reach the mid and upper 40s. Some sun may work its way out later in the day after a cloudy start. No precipitation is expected.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu mar 23 | thur, rain showers mid 50 | fri, mostly cloudy low 40 | sat, am mix late rain mid 40 | sun, windy some late sun mid 40 | mon, sun and clouds mid 40 | tues, rain, maybe snow late mid 40 | wed, sun and clouds low 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Monday will have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures sticking close to the seasonal averages. Look for morning lows in the upper 20s and afternoon highs in the mid 40s.

Another weather system may impact the area later Tuesday and especially Tuesday night. Rain and/or snow will be possible, but it is too early to tell how much of each. Accumulating snow is not out of the question, but the chances are low at this point.

This system could linger into Wednesday, but some sunshine should work its way out behind it. Temperatures will be on the cooler side for a day or two with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Some warmer air should work in behind that, though, with highs well into the 40s if not warmer for early April.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu mar 23 | thur, rain showers mid 50 | fri, mostly cloudy low 40 | sat, am mix late rain mid 40 | sun, windy some late sun mid 40 | mon, sun and clouds mid 40 | tues, rain, maybe snow late mid 40 | wed, sun and clouds low 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.