Mostly dry again this week with average temperatures

Early Week Rain Chances

High pressure sliding across eastern Canada will keep our weather mostly dry until a mid-week cold front moves through.

Underneath this high pressure, a stream of air from western Canada will continue to push wildfire smoke into our skies. As it has done for the last few days, the smoke will wax and wane at different times.

Wildfire smoke aside, skies will be clear through this morning before some fair weather clouds begin to bubble up during the midday and afternoon hours. A few isolated spits of brief rain may develop by the mid and late afternoon.

The best chance for rain will come across the higher elevations of Cortland, Tompkins, and Tioga counties, and in the hills along the NY-PA state line through Chemung, Steuben, and Allegany counties. Areas that do see rain may not even see enough to wet the pavement. Most areas will be completely dry.

Winds will be out of the north at under 10 mph. Still, the north wind will knock temperatures back a bit. Near the shore of Lake Ontario, highs will only be in the low 60s. Mid and upper 60s will take over for the rest of the northern half of the region, with low and even mid 70s in the southern half of the region.

Tonight, skies will be mostly clear with nearly calm winds. Overnight lows will drop down to the mid and upper 40s.

Tuesday will have a light south wind as high pressure moves out over the North Atlantic. Winds aloft will be more westerly, so the atmosphere may remain smokey at times.

There will be a slightly higher, but still very small, chance for rain on Tuesday. A few blimps may show up on the radar during the morning hours, but the afternoon is more likely to have a few isolated showers.

These are most likely to originate over the western Southern Tier and then drift eastward into the heart of the Finger Lakes region late in the day. A few rumbles of thunder may also be possible. Again, most areas should stay dry, though.

Temperatures will rise into the mid and possibly upper 70s Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night will be mild with lows in the mid 50s as south winds increase slightly overnight.

Wednesday morning will see temperatures quickly jump to the 70s, but a cold front will turn winds northerly by the early afternoon. Gusts over 30 mph will be possible as temperatures drop through the 60s and possibly even into the 50s during the afternoon.

Some light rain showers will be likely behind the front, but rain amounts should be light. If the front is slow enough, a few thunderstorms may spark along the front itself, but the chances for this are higher to our south and east.

Rebounding Temperatures

North winds will remain in place on Thursday, though speeds will be a little lighter, coming in around 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Morning lows will range from the mid 30s across the Southern Tier to near 40 along the lake shores. Some patchy frost may be possible.

Afternoon temperatures will then struggle to reach 60 degrees, with urban areas and the broad valleys of the Southern Tier having the best chance of escaping the 50s.

Skies will be sunny once again with high pressure stretching across eastern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes.

This high pressure system is going to entrench itself over our region, even as low pressure and unsettled weather develop over the Southeastern US and tries to move northward. The tug of war these systems will play is leading to lower confidence in the forecast for the long holiday weekend.

The trend on the models has been to favor the high pressure system, and the entire weekend could end up on the dry side.

However, the possibility of rain should continue to be considered, especially Sunday night into Monday. I will, of course, continue to monitor the set up closely.

Temperatures will quickly rebound from their cool-down on Thursday. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60s, which is just a few degrees cooler than average for late May. Low 70s, at least, will return on Saturday, and Sunday should be at least in the mid 70s.

Friday morning may again have some patchy frost in southern areas with similar lows to Thursday morning. As we head into the weekend, overnight temperatures should be close to average in the mid 40s.

The transition from May to June next week looks warm with highs in the 70s and possibly 80s. There may be some hit-or-miss afternoon showers and storms, but widespread precipitation looks less likely until perhaps the following weekend.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.