Weekend Weather Forecast
The persistent low pressure system over New England that has sat nearby most of the week is dissipating.
However, a disturbance in the atmosphere rotating around what is left of the low will bring another round of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area Friday.
There are already a few showers dotting the radar this morning, but the rain will become most plentiful during the early and mid afternoon hours.
Most of these showers will develop anew over our area, and a few could have some thunder and lightning and brief periods of heavier rain. Individual cells will remain scattered or will coalesce into small clusters.
While most areas should see at least some rain, there will probably be a few locations that slip through with little to nothing. This is most possible north of I-90.
A few showers will linger into the early evening before dissipating.
Light northwest winds will blow today with highs mostly reaching the mid 60s.
As best as I can tell, fire activity in Quebec yesterday was low due to cool temperatures and some rain showers in the area. As such, there is not much smoke anywhere this morning, nor are there expected to be any major smoke plumes. Air quality should therefore remain in a much more typical range with little concern.
Saturday will start out with morning lows mostly ranging through the 40s. The afternoon will turn warmer, though, with highs reaching the mid 70s.
The increase in temperature can be attributed to a mix of sun and clouds and a broad southwesterly flow aloft, even though surface winds will be from the west or northwest at times on Saturday.
There is only a small chance for a stray shower on Saturday. The majority of the area will be perfectly dry.
Sunday is also looking mostly dry, but we will lose the sun as plenty of clouds build in ahead of the next weather maker. Again, a stray shower cannot be totally ruled out, but they should be few and far between.
Temperatures on Sunday will push into the upper 70s and a few places will likely reach 80 degrees. Winds will generally be from the south, but light enough that local topographical influences will have an impact.
Rain Outlook Next Week
You do not need me to tell you that is has been very dry for the last month or so. The last substantial rain in the region came at the end of April. Rainfall deficits are between 2-4 inches for most of the area over the last 60 days.
The US Drought Monitor, in its weekly update yesterday, finally placed all the Finger Lakes in its Level 1 -Abnormally Dry category, with a small sliver of Level 2- Moderate Drought along the NY-PA border.
However, there is good news in the forecast next week as a rainy pattern begins to develop.
The primary rain maker will come Monday afternoon and Monday night. The system that will push clouds in on Sunday will continue to move northeast toward our region as a cold front. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front, which may slow down its progress and add some extra energy to the system as it moves through the Finger Lakes.
There is a high chance for widespread rainfall amounts over a half-inch from this system, and a moderate chance for over an inch.
Most of this rain will fall later Monday afternoon into Monday evening. However, showers may start to enter the area as early as Monday morning.
Despite the rain, temperatures should still make it into the mid 70s on Monday. South winds will increase to around 10 mph, but should not be much stronger than that.
The rain is expected to move out before sunrise on Tuesday, though a few lingering showers will be possible. Most of the day should have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures remaining in the mid 70s.
Active weather will continue thereafter, with more showers expected both Wednesday and Thursday. Neither of these events look as widespread or heavy as Monday night, but they will certainly help chip away at the rainfall deficit.
Temperatures will remain just below average with highs retreating to the low 70s for the second half of next week. Not much change in temperature is expected the following week, either. The precipitation pattern looks balanced, with both rainy and dry periods expected.
It is worth noting that some of this rainy pattern will extend into Quebec, so hopefully the fires there will become much less of an issue in the near future.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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