Much Needed Rainfall
A broad area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is spinning over the Great Lakes and will remain in place for much of the week.
At the surface, low pressure and a front extend from near Buffalo due southward this morning. This front will slowly move eastward today, pivoting to a northwest-southeast direction, while also strengthening.
This is a prime set up for heavy rain across the Finger Lakes.
The rain will gradually build in this morning from west to east, though some far eastern areas may end up dry through the noontime hour. Everyone will get into the rain in due time, though.
Once the rain starts, it will be mostly steady rainfall throughout the afternoon. The rain will pull out from the southwest to the northeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.
During the late afternoon, rainfall rates will increase as localized downpours develop. Some of these may be quite heavy, and minor poor drainage flooding issues will be possible in areas that see repeated downpours. Those with basements susceptible to flooding should take note.
Across the southeastern Finger Lakes, mainly Chemung, Tioga, and maybe Tompkins and Cortland counties, a few rumbles of thunder and some blustery winds may be possible.
Rainfall totals will be highest across the eastern and northern Finger Lakes, where the heavier downpours develop later in the day. Widespread amounts of 1-2 inches are likely, but localized pockets of 3 or more inches will be possible. This area can very roughly be defined as all areas north of Penn Yan, and all areas east of Penn Yan.
For the quadrant of the region that is both west and south of Penn Yan, rainfall amounts will be lower, but still beneficial. Rainfall amounts here will generally be one-half to one inch.
Temperatures will peak just before the rain arrives, with some eastern areas climbing into the mid 70s by midday. Much of the afternoon, however, will see temperatures in the upper 60s. Southeast winds will be breezy, with gusts of 20-30 mph until the rain ceases.
Tonight, lighter northwest winds will develop, and skies will quickly clear. Areas of patchy fog are possible with temperatures dipping into the low and mid 50s. A few of the typically cooler pockets across the Southern Tier may end up in the upper 40s.
Lighter Rain Chances
Tuesday should generally be a dry day with a mix of sun and plentiful puffy fair weather clouds. The only chance for rain will be late in the day across western areas as a decaying area of showers dissipates overhead.
Winds will be from the west, with variations both towards a southwest and northwest wind at different times and in different locations. Wind speeds will remain gentle.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be near or slightly above 70 degrees. Evening temperatures will drop into the 50s with overnight lows between 50-55 degrees. Most areas will be on the upper half of that range thanks to an increase in clouds.
Showers will be possible throughout the day on Wednesday. The rain will not be as steady as today and certainly not as heavy, though an isolated thunderstorm will be possible near I-81 in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts Wednesday should be near, but mostly under a half-inch.
Additional showers will be possible on Thursday and Friday. These should be much more scattered than on Wednesday, with each day also having plenty of dry time. Some sun will probably poke out from time to time as well.
Temperatures will remain slightly cool, with highs mainly in the 60s Wednesday and near or just above 70 degrees on Thursday and Friday.
Another dry day is expected on Saturday before rain showers will be possible Sunday and Monday.
As a whole, next week looks slightly warmer and slightly less active than this week.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
ParchedGardener
Looks like another bust of a rain event here in Ithaca. Light sprinkles on and off since lunchtime, but no “steady rain” or downpours. The ground is barely even damp as of 3pm.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
It is currently 5 PM and the radar is solid with increasing intensity. If you reread the blog post, you will see that I:
– Point out the rain would be a slow build up
– Specify the development of localized downpours in the late afternoon
– Specify the Eastern FLX as having the highest expected rainfall totals *once the downpours develop late in the day*
All three of these key points which you missed are valid and unfolding as expected right on schedule.