Increasing Rain Chances
High pressure off the coast of Maine is doing its best at keeping our region quiet and dry even as low pressure moves north into the Mid-Atlantic region.
A batch of showers is lifting north through Pennsylvania this morning and is starting to show signs of breaking up.
A few showers will probably survive the trip into the Southern Tier, but the models are in good agreement now that rain will be hard to come by across most of the Finger Lakes today.
What rain does fall should be light and sporadic, oftentimes nothing more than a few spits of raindrops.
Skies will be rather cloudy, but there will be breaks of sun as well. The further north, the greater the chances for sunshine today.
This will also set up a temperature gradient with the warmest air in the north. Near and north of I-90, mid and even upper 70s may be possible. Most of the rest of the area will see low 70s, with a few higher elevations topping our right around 70 degrees.
Winds will be light from the east and southeast at near or under 5 mph.
Clouds will increase further tonight and some scattered showers will pass through after midnight and into early Friday morning. Nighttime temperatures will drop to around 60 degrees.
Additional small showers will be possible through Friday morning and into the mid-afternoon. Most of this time, however, it will be dry.
Temperatures should be more uniform on Friday, with most areas in the mid 70s. A few urbanized areas will be a bit warmer, and a few hilltops a bit cooler. It will be humid with dewpoints into the mid 60s.
Showers and thunderstorms will start to increase in the late afternoon and into the evening. While all the Finger Lakes will have a chance for rain, areas east of Cayuga Lake seem especially favored for clusters of showers and storms.
The clouds, showers, and humid air will keep temperatures in the mid 60s overnight and into early Saturday.
Continuing Rain Chances
Saturday will see a few showers around in the morning, followed by more widespread activity during the afternoon hours.
Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop throughout the region. Locally heavy rain may become a minor concern due to a moisture-rich environment and light winds throughout the atmosphere.
The rain should greatly diminish as the sun sets, though a few scattered showers will linger through the evening and overnight hours.
Temperatures on Saturday will peak during the midday and early afternoon with highs in the mid and upper 70s. As the rain becomes widespread in the afternoon, temperatures should fall several degrees. It will remain humid, with dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s.
Sunday will start out with temperatures in the low and mid 60s and highs should be able to make it near or above 80 degrees in many areas.
There will be showers about, but they should be less widespread than on Saturday. Areas east of Cayuga Lake and the Southern Tier will have the best shot at some additional rain.
A new system will begin to approach from the west on Monday. It is not expected to fully arrive, but its presence will lead to warmer temperatures in the low and mid 80s on Monday. Dewpoints will be between 65-70 degrees, leading to an unstable atmosphere.
At least a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in this environment. Some of these may become robust enough for some hail or gusty winds, though widespread severe weather should be prevented by generally weak wind fields in the atmosphere.
There will be a better chance for rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday as the new system passes through with a cold front.
Showers may linger into Wednesday and Thursday behind this front, with temperatures retreating to around 70 degrees on Wednesday.
The weather pattern should remain active, with more chances for rain sometime late next week or into next weekend.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.