An area of low pressure moved into the Upper Great Lakes over the weekend and will be slow to move eastward.
For today, the low will remain to our west over Michigan in a prime location for active weather in the Finger Lakes.
While our region is starting out cloudy this morning, skies over western New York and western Pennsylvania are sunnier. Some of this clearing should make its way into our area later this morning, which will help set the stage for thunderstorms.
However, there is some disagreement on the models with the timing of the storms, and there is a chance that there could be multiple rounds.
In a multiple round scenario, the first round may arrive during the midday hours with a second round late in the afternoon or early in the evening. In this scenario, neither batch of showers and storms will have time and energy to fully engage, so lighter rain and less frequent lightning would be expected.
However, if the initial batch is delayed into the afternoon, it will have more time to develop and strengthen, especially for the eastern half of the Finger Lakes region. A mid or even later afternoon arrival would mean at least some potential for severe weather with locally damaging wind gusts and some flash flooding potential.
At 7 AM, there were scattered showers across southern Ontario, Lake Erie, northeast Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. These were developing within the aforementioned clear skies and are shown to varying degrees on the models.
Based on the current motion, most of the existing activity should move north across western New York, staying out of the Finger Lakes. This would give our area the chance for later, more robust development. The key will be whether more activity develops across Pennsylvania this morning and arrives in the Finger Lakes during the midday hours.
The key to approaching the weather today with our outdoor plans will be to monitor the radar and to have a plan in place should a storm suddenly come up. The more sunshine we see later this morning, and the longer it takes for rain to make it into the area, the greater the chances for robust thunderstorms later in the day.
Unsurprisingly, it will be another humid, warm day, especially if the sun comes out for an extended period of time. Highs should be in the low and mid 80s with dewpoints approaching 70 degrees. Winds will be from the south at around 10 mph, but potentially stronger in association with thunderstorms.
Showers will be possible during the evening and overnight but should be light and sporadic. Overnight temperatures will mostly be in the mid 60s.
On Tuesday, the low will scoot its way to a position north of Lake Ontario. This will shift the focus for the most robust action to the east of the Finger Lakes.
Still, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. There should be less lightning with tomorrow’s storms compared to today’s, and the threat of isolated severe weather should be absent. However, any additional heavy rain may still cause some localized flooding concerns.
Temperatures on Tuesday will top out in the upper 70s with dewpoints remaining muggy in the upper half of the 60s. Winds will be from the south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
Weather Settles Down… For a Couple Days
The low will make its way further east on Wednesday, but it will still be close enough to give us one more day of some scattered showers.
Cool air will wrap into the low and over our area, reducing high temperatures to near or slightly above 70 degrees. Dewpoints will also come down on Wednesday, mainly sticking to the upper 50s.
Showers will be possible at any time on Wednesday, but will probably be most plentiful during the second half of the morning and the first half of the afternoon. The further east, the higher the chances for rain.
With the cooler air, thunderstorms are generally not expected, and rainfall should be lighter. Northwest winds will blow at around 10 mph.
High pressure will then build in for Thursday and Friday, even as the low continues to spin nearby over New England. No rain is expected on either day, with a mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures will quickly bounce back with highs in the upper 70s on Thursday and low 80s on Friday. Winds will remain from the northwest on Thursday but will be light and variable on Friday.
The forecast for the weekend is uncertain at this point, though there is at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The weather system responsible for that chance looks to be more progressive and should move along quickly.
As we head into the following week, there will still be chances for rain and thunderstorms, but it is too early to pinpoint when. Temperatures should remain in the same general range within several degrees on either side of 80 degrees.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.