Weak Cold Front
A small disturbance passing by to our north will drag a weak cold front through the Finger Lakes region this afternoon.
Ahead of and along the front, some scattered showers and thunderstorms will pop up. These will be most likely during the early and mid-afternoon hours, though a few showers may linger to sunset.
For the most part, these will be rather benign, with very low chances of anything severe or rain heavy enough to cause any minor flooding. Several areas will likely be missed altogether, with little to no rainfall.
Winds will turn from the southwest to the northwest during the mid to late afternoon as the front clears the region. Wind speeds will remain around or slightly above 5 mph both before and after the front.
Temperatures will top out near or slightly above 80 degrees this afternoon, with 70s becoming more common as the front moves through.
The front will also help clear out more of the lingering wildfire smoke from the plume that moved overhead yesterday.
Air Quality Index values are slightly improved as a whole compared to yesterday. Instead of widespread “Unhealthy” conditions, the area is a mix of “Moderate” and “Unhealthy for sensitive groups” this morning.
The Air Quality Index will probably not change much from current levels through the afternoon before improving further this evening and into Wednesday.
The overnight will turn mostly clear, though areas of fog will also develop. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than they have been lately, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s in the western Southern Tier to around 60 degrees near the lake shores.
Wednesday will be comfortable with near-average temperatures around 80 degrees and low dewpoints in the 50s. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds with just the smallest of chances for a stray spit of rain during the afternoon.
A light northwest wind will blow with speeds around or under 5 mph.
Smoke concentrations should be low tomorrow. Though there may still be a slight haze to the sky, the air quality should not be a major concern.
Wednesday evening should be mostly clear, followed by some occasional clouds during the overnight. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Late Week Showers
Much of Thursday will be quiet and dry. Winds will swing around to the south, and while they will remain light, this will be enough to increase the heat and humidity. Afternoon highs should make it back into the mid 80s with dewpoints rising into the 60s.
A few late day showers or storms may pop up, but it looks as though the better chance for rain will come during the nighttime. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are likely. Severe weather will probably not be a concern, but some locally heavy downpours will be possible.
The bulk of the activity should move out before sunrise on Friday, but some light showers will linger behind the main area throughout the day on Friday. It should not be a washout of a day, with many dry periods and low precipitation amounts.
Temperatures on Friday will fall to the upper 70s with west-southwest winds of 5-10 mph.
Saturday will likewise have some scattered showers about, but should not be a completely rainy day. Temperatures will remain cooler, with highs in the mid 70s. As this system clears out Saturday night, clearing skies will allow temperatures to fall into the mid or even low 50s.
The weekend should end quietly with sun and clouds on Sunday and a high around 80 degrees.
Next week should be less active than this week, with generally low chances for rain. The best chance for some showers appears to be later Tuesday.
Temperatures will jump back to the mid 80s on Monday and should stay near or above that for much of the week. The end of the week may be particularly warm, though it is far too early and the spread on the models much too large to tell for sure.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.