An every-other-day weather pattern is setting up across the Finger Lakes. While today will be generally sunny, tomorrow will be back to the wet weather.
Skies are generally clear this morning with a few sporadic clouds drifting through the Finger Lakes.
Fair weather clouds will begin to bubble up later this morning and will persist through the afternoon. A few of the clouds may grow large enough to support a few spits of rain. Most areas will stay dry, and even those that do see rain should only see a couple minutes worth of rain, probably not even wetting the pavement completely.
There is a small amount of wildfire smoke passing through as well. That may decrease the blueness of the sky slightly but should not cause any significant decrease in air quality.
A steady northwest wind will blow at 5-10 mph. Temperatures will be much warmer than yesterday, but overall near average, with highs ranging from the mid 70s in some higher elevations to the upper 70s and low 80s in most areas.
Skies will start out clear this evening with temperatures dropping through the 60s. By midnight, clouds will move in, and winds will start to turn more southerly.
Thursday will have wet weather, one way or another, but the details have some uncertainty.
A complex of thunderstorms over Kansas this morning will spend today tracking eastward toward the Ohio River Valley. By Thursday morning, this complex will be moving into Pennsylvania. There are two ways the day can unfold, depending on this activity.
In one scenario, this area just clips the southern reaches of the Finger Lakes or misses altogether. Clouds will still be likely, but some sun may poke through later in the morning and into the afternoon.
Then, as a cold front approaches later in the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop.
Alternatively, if the morning rain comes further north, the day may turn out more like Tuesday did with periods of showers and even some steadier rain. This would reduce the chances of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Still, some embedded thundery downpours could develop.
Either way, rain is likely, and some of it may fall heavily. These downpours will be the greatest threat from the weather, though it is a minimal threat at that.
Rain will move out during the afternoon or evening hours on Thursday.
Active Weather Continues
Friday will turn out similar to today, as our region resides between weather systems once again.
Expect a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day, with a stray shower possibly popping up during the afternoon.
Winds will be back to the northwest with speeds of 5-10 mph. Temperatures will be cooler than today, with highs mostly in the mid 70s. Overnight lows will get down into the mid 50s for Saturday morning.
Saturday bears close watching as the next system moves in. There are several ingredients for severe weather that will be present to varying degrees. How well they overlap will determine the chances for strong thunderstorms.
As usual, small changes to the overall pattern and the specifics of how Saturday unfolds could have drastic results on the forecast. This remains a wait-and-see situation, but given that it is a Saturday afternoon, the potential impact on outdoor plans is potentially greater. Stay tuned.
True to the pattern, this system will quickly move out and leave Sunday as the dry, tranquil day for the weekend. A lingering shower will be possible in the morning, but most of the day will be a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will reach the upper 70s.
The next system may not arrive until after sunset Monday, so we may sneak in another mostly dry day before the rain. With the showers and storms currently looking like a nighttime event, the chances for severe weather will be lower.
However, we have had plenty of after-dark severe weather events before, so this is not an automatic disqualifier. There will be strong winds aloft and low pressure in a favorable position over southern Ontario, so the situation bears watching. Again, we are in a wait-and-see situation.
Rain showers will likely linger into Tuesday before rain chances go on an overall decline for the rest of next week.
Temperatures will stick close to average through the middle of next week but then may start to heat up towards next weekend.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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