A boundary separating the cooler air we have had for the last few days and a large dome of excessive heat will serve as a focal point for unsettled weather over the coming days.
The heat will never make it into our region, but as this boundary creeps eastward, moisture and unsettled weather will increase.
There remains some inherent uncertainty in the exact evolution of the unsettled weather over the next few days. This is due to a combination of subtle disturbances in the atmosphere triggering showers and the passing of thunderstorm complexes to our west and south.
For this morning, clouds have moved in, but rain showers are sparse. A stray spit of rain cannot be ruled out, but most areas will remain dry well into the afternoon.
Showers may increase from west to east during the late afternoon and evening. How widespread and heavy the rain becomes will need to be monitored in real-time on the radar, not the computer models, which vary widely.
Temperatures today will be in the low and mid 70s. Winds will be just a whisper from the south, shifting to the southeast and picking up slightly this evening.
Occasional showers are possible on Thursday throughout the region. Again, there is uncertainty in how many showers are present, but the trends favor more showers, not fewer.
Thursday’s high temperatures will be variable, ranging from the upper 60s in some eastern hilly areas all the way to near 80 degrees from Rochester to Dansville. Dewpoints will be on the rise, with muggy conditions taking over the western half of the region.
That could lead to thunderstorms and heavier downpours Thursday night, but again, the evolution of this is less certain than it usually would be. This will probably be the best chance for significant rainfall in our area in the coming days, though.
Friday also looks quite showery. A warm, muggy day is expected nonetheless with highs in the upper 70s and dewpoints around 70 degrees.
Southerly winds may be a bit blustery at times Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday. Late Friday, winds will turn to the northwest and decline.
Weekend Weather Into Next Week
A frontal boundary should drop southeast through the Finger Lakes on Saturday. Conditions look favorable for a few thunderstorms along the front. Significant severe weather seems unlikely.
Temperatures will be held to the low and mid 70s on Saturday, especially if the front moves through during the midday hours as currently projected. It will remain on the muggy side with dewpoints well into the 60s.
Low pressure will pass by Saturday night into early Sunday. Some morning showers may linger around early Sunday, but the trend should be for dry weather to build in for the afternoon.
After several nights in the 60s, temperatures should return to the mid 50s for Sunday morning. Afternoon highs will stay cool in the low 70s.
Monday has the best chance of staying dry with a mix of sun and cloud expected. Temperatures will gain back several degrees for highs in the mid 70s.
Some rain looks possible toward the middle of next week, especially around Wednesday. A period of dry weather is then expected late next week into the following weekend as we head into early September.
Temperatures in early September are looking warmer than they are currently, though it is too early to count on this trend holding.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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