High Pressure Returns
Today will be a transition day as low pressure over New England departs and high pressure from the Ohio Valley builds in.
Already this morning, some areas have cleared out and are starting the day with sunny skies. Most of the clouds in the region are over the western Southern Tier and areas east of Cayuga Lake.
Mixed skies will continue through the morning hours before most areas become mostly sunny for the afternoon.
Rain showers this morning will be limited to a few spits of rain near the shore of eastern Lake Ontario. These will be the last showers our region sees until at least the weekend.
Northwest winds will be on the blustery side today as the two opposite pressure systems sandwich the area. Wind speeds will be over 10 mph with some gusts reaching 30 mph.
The wind will hold temperatures in check with highs mostly in the mid 60s. Typically warmer areas may sneak into the upper 60s, while some hilltops sit in the low 60s.
Winds will decrease late in the afternoon and will become nearly calm overnight. With mostly clear skies in place, temperatures will drop with widespread 40s overnight. Many areas will end up in the mid 40s, with lakeshores in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Pockets of low 40s across the western Southern Tier and Central New York will not be surprising.
Sunshine will be abundant on Wednesday with light northwest and north winds. Temperatures will add on a couple of degrees for a high in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. The valleys of the Southern Tier from Dansville to Binghamton may get just above 70 degrees.
Wednesday night will again be clear, calm, and cool with similar temperatures ranging through the 40s. The western Southern Tier will have less of a chance for seeing low 40s, but areas east of Cayuga Lake may have a greater chance.
Thursday will copy Wednesday, only a bit warmer again. Expect lots of sunshine with highs ranging from the upper 60s in higher elevations to a few mid 70s for places like Rochester, Dansville, and Elmira. Most of the region should be right around or just above 70 degrees.
Dry Weather Eventually Ends
By Thursday night, a light southeast wind will set up as the first signal of a change in the weather. This wind will continue into Friday, increasing to over 5 mph.
This wind shift should introduce some extra moisture into the atmosphere, and with high pressure sliding off to the east, at least some clouds will start to develop.
That is not to say that Friday will not be sunny. It should still be very sunny, in fact. Friday will also probably end up as the warmest day of the week with widespread low and mid 70s.
Forecast certainty starts to decrease on Saturday when a deck of clouds may build in from the south. Dry weather is expected, but sunshine may be limited.
Temperatures will likely fall back a couple of degrees if the sun is obscured, but highs should still be around 70 degrees.
Rain chances on Sunday are uncertain, but this will be our next chance for any rain. Potentially unsettled weather may continue into early next week as well. The peak of the rain chances may not be until Tuesday and Wednesday, though.
It should rain at some point in that Sunday-Wednesday window. Stay tuned.
Temperatures will ultimately depend on the rain as well. If one of those days ends up cloudy and showery throughout, expect highs to be stuck in the 60s. Otherwise, temperatures will have a good shot at being around or over 70 degrees.
It looks as though temperatures will remain in this general neighborhood for the near future as we close out September and head into October.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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