Some Lake Effect Showers
There has been no appreciable change in the overall weather pattern since yesterday, as a large area of low pressure continues to spin over eastern Canada.
This low has drifted slightly westward, which has winds out of the southwest this morning.
Lake effect rain showers off of Lake Erie are scattered across the northern and western Finger Lakes. To the south and east, it is dry, albeit cloudy.
This will be the overall setup for today, though the number of showers and their south and eastward extent will vary over time. Even for those areas in the path of the showers, it should not be an all-day rain, but hit-or-miss brief showers.
Wind speeds will be around 10 mph throughout much of the day but will drop significantly in the late afternoon and early evening.
Temperatures will not be much different than yesterday. Many areas will get into the mid 50s, but higher elevations will stick to the low 50s.
The threat for scattered showers may increase across all the Finger Lakes tonight and into Wednesday morning as some atmospheric energy passes through and enhances the lake effect. None of the rain should be heavy, and some areas may still manage to get through with just a few drips and drops.
Winds will become a bit more southerly tonight as the energy approaches before going back to the southwest on Wednesday. Nighttime wind speeds will be near or just over 5 mph while Wednesday’s winds will return to around 10 mph.
With the clouds and winds, temperatures tonight will be in the mid 40s with some low 40s in the normally cooler pockets of the Southern Tier and Central New York.
Scattered showers will continue to be possible throughout the daytime hours Wednesday and into the early evening. Again, individual showers will be sporadic and light, so much of the time, it will probably not be raining.
Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will top out in the upper 50s with a few places breaking into the low 60s. Higher elevations will stay in the mid or even low 50s.
Briefly Quiet, then More Rain and Chill
The Canadian low will pull away on Thursday, allowing for a narrow wedge of high pressure to slide in from the northwest. Meanwhile, over the center of the nation, another strong low pressure system will begin to develop.
As the low pulls away, it may try to throw a few more clouds at us. Even a stray shower cannot be totally ruled out on Thursday. Nonetheless, there should be at least some breaks of sunshine, if not a true mix of sun and clouds.
Winds will be nearly calm in the morning but will turn to the northwest for the afternoon with light speeds just over 5 mph.
Despite this, Thursday will probably be the warmest day of the week, with widespread highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Even most higher elevations should get above 55 degrees.
The cloud cover Thursday night is a bit uncertain. At least early on, skies may be clear. If it remains clear all night, some frosty pockets could develop in the usually colder areas. Most of the Finger Lakes region should stay near or above 40 degrees.
Clouds will gradually increase on Friday, but the sun may still be able to shine through the thinner clouds, especially in the morning.
The extra clouds and northerly winds will keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than on Thursday.
The low pressure that will develop mid-week over the middle of the nation will roll in by Saturday. Details of the rain are still a bit uncertain, but it very well may turn out to be a very rainy day.
Showers are likely to linger on Sunday and become more sporadic early next week. Temperatures will get reset, with highs in the low 50s by Sunday and Monday with slow improvement next week.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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