More clouds than sun and a few lingering showers

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday october 17 2023 clouds sun showers
Showers will be few and far between today, but breaks of sunshine may also be hard to find. [Photo by John Gregoire, adapted]

Drying Out

Low pressure will continue to pull further away from the region today, but high pressure will be in no hurry to move in to take its place.

This will result in a continuation of a weak northwesterly flow of temperate air. Coming across Lake Ontario, the air will remain cool enough to produce clouds and a few spits of rain.

The chances for showers today are much less than yesterday or Sunday. Most of the time it should be dry, and some places will get through the entire day without seeing additional rainfall. The showers that do develop will be small, short-lived, and isolated.

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Already early this morning, there are some breaks in the cloud cover showing on satellite, though most of the region is cloudy. This will probably be the overall pattern throughout the day, with more clouds than sun, but occasional breaks in the clouds, anyway. The chance for sunny breaks will increase in the afternoon.

Northwest winds will be around or just over 5 mph with gusts staying under 20 mph. Temperatures will be a touch warmer than yesterday, with most areas in the mid 50s. A few of the typically warmer urban and valley locations may sneak into the upper 50s, while a few higher elevations stick to the low 50s.

Skies will be mixed tonight. Any prolonged clearing will help temperatures fall, but ultimately, clouds should win out on the whole. Only a few cold pockets will fall below 40 degrees, though most areas should drop at least to 45 degrees.

Wednesday will remain mostly cloudy but with some sporadic appearances of sunshine. A stray shower cannot be totally ruled out, but the vast majority of the region will stay dry.

Winds will turn to the southwest with speeds just over 5 mph throughout the day. This will add on a few more degrees to the afternoon high. Areas near and north of I-90 and in the broad valleys of the Southern Tier will be near 60 degrees. Most other places will be in the upper 50s, with mid 50s along the hilltops.

South winds Wednesday night should keep temperatures mainly in the low and mid 40s, even as skies clear out more.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tue oct 17 | tues, a few showers mid 50 | wed, mostly cloudy upper 50 | thur, filtered sunshine mid 60 | fri, showers, mainly west low 60 | sat, rain or showers mid 50 | sun, showers upper 40 | mon, sun and clouds upper 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Next Weather Maker

Thursday morning should start out with some sunshine, but thin clouds out ahead of the next weather maker will quickly move in from the west.

At least for the morning hours, sunshine should be able to filter through the thin clouds. Gradually, the clouds will thicken, and the available sunshine will decrease. No rain is expected during the day Thursday, though.

South winds will increase on Thursday with speeds around 10 mph. This will help boost temperatures to their high point of the week. Even higher elevations should be around 60 degrees, with mid or even upper 60s along and north of I-90. Low and mid 60s will be common to the south.

Rain showers will slowly move in from the west Thursday night into Friday. These should remain scattered and may not make it into the southeastern half of the region before dissipating.

The rain should reload over the western areas Friday evening, spearing east into the rest of the area Friday night into Saturday morning. The details on how this rain evolves, where the heaviest areas may be, and how long it persists on Saturday are still variable and likely to shift.

Temperatures will take a small hit on Friday with highs mostly in the low 60s. Saturday will be a bigger drop to the mid 50s as low pressure passes by and winds turn to the northwest.

For the third week in a row, Sunday looks cool, windy, and showery as low pressure intensifies off the New England coast. Temperatures may have a hard time escaping the 40s with numerous showers.

High pressure will build in early next week, quickly turning conditions sunny and dry. This could open a window for frost Monday or Tuesday morning before temperatures go on a warming trend by the middle of the week.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tue oct 17 | tues, a few showers mid 50 | wed, mostly cloudy upper 50 | thur, filtered sunshine mid 60 | fri, showers, mainly west low 60 | sat, rain or showers mid 50 | sun, showers upper 40 | mon, sun and clouds upper 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.