Sunshine and warmer temperatures ahead of unsettled weekend weather

finger lakes weather forecast thursday october 19 2023 sunny warmer breezy unsettled weekend weather
Temperatures will generally be in the 60s today and tomorrow before a sharp downturn over the weekend. [Photo by Rio Lange, taken in Ithaca]

Window of Sunshine

High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will bring some sunshine and warmer temperatures to the region today before the next weather maker moves in.

Skies are mostly clear, with just a couple of thin clouds across the region at sunrise this morning. Most areas are starting off in the 40s, but there are scattered cold pockets that range throughout the 30s.

Temperatures should rise steadily this morning thanks to plenty of sunshine and a steady south wind. Wind speeds will increase to near 10 mph by the afternoon.

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Afternoon highs will commonly be in the low and mid 60s. A few warmer pockets are possible around Dansville, Rochester, and Syracuse, while a few higher elevations may not quite make it over 60 degrees.

Thin clouds will eventually become more numerous and will start to filter the sunshine during the afternoon hours. By sunset, a layer of thin overcast should be in place. The clouds will continue to increase and thicken overnight as south winds stay steady around 10 mph.

This will result in a mild overnight with overnight lows in the low and mid 50s.

A few rain showers may start to show up west of Seneca Lake after midnight, but these should be few and far between.

On Friday, there will be two main areas of rain showers. One will primarily stay to the west, while the other will mostly be to the east. Stray showers will be possible throughout the Finger Lakes, but especially on the western and eastern edges.

There may even be some periods of sunshine in this middle zone between the rain bands.

South winds will be a bit stronger than today, with speeds approaching 15 mph and a few higher elevation gusts over 30 mph.

Temperatures will be warm again on Friday, especially if some sun does manage to break through the clouds. Highs in the low and mid 60s will be commonplace again.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu oct 19 | thur, increasing thin clouds mid 60 | fri, scattered showers mid 60 | sat, scattered showers mid 50 | sun, windy showers upper 40 | mon, sun, a few clouds near 50 | tues, mostly sunny near 60 | wed, a few showers mid 60
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Unsettled and Cooler Weekend Weather

The western band of rain will slowly make its way east on Friday night, marking a cold front. This should clear the region by dawn Saturday, leaving just a few stray showers behind for Saturday morning.

Winds will turn to the northwest, remaining blustery and bringing in cooler air. After morning lows around 50 degrees, afternoon highs on Saturday will be in the mid and upper 50s.

As these cool winds come across Lake Ontario, a few lake enhanced showers should pop up during the afternoon. As usual, these will be more common closer to Lake Ontario.

All in all, there may not be a whole lot of rain around on Saturday, with the bulk of the precipitation staying to our east as low pressure develops along the coast of New England and then moves inland.

Sunday morning will start with temperatures in the low 40s. The low pressure will track into northern New England, increasing our northwest winds and the influx of cool, moist air.

Showers will be possible throughout the day on Sunday. Again, though, they will be most prevalent downwind of Lake Ontario. Wind speeds will be near 15 mph with frequent gusts near or over 30 mph.

Afternoon highs are unlikely to reach 50 degrees on Sunday, and some areas, especially in higher elevations, may have a hard time getting to 45 degrees.

The low will pull away Sunday night, which could lead to clearing skies and cold temperatures. At least patchy frost will be possible Monday morning with lows ranging through the 30s.

Monday will have sun and a few clouds with highs climbing back to around 50 degrees. But, another clear, cold night will follow, with widespread frost and freeze conditions possible. Tuesday will then turn out sunny and mild with highs approaching 60 degrees.

Mild weather will continue to build in for the middle of the week. By the end of the week, there is a large spread on the models in possible temperatures, though warmer air is more favored. Cool temperatures will eventually win out as we head toward the final days of October and start of November.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu oct 19 | thur, increasing thin clouds mid 60 | fri, scattered showers mid 60 | sat, scattered showers mid 50 | sun, windy showers upper 40 | mon, sun, a few clouds near 50 | tues, mostly sunny near 60 | wed, a few showers mid 60
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.