Incoming Cold Front
Low pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly spin eastward today before redeveloping along the New England coast this weekend.
A few showers passed through the western portions of the region overnight, but at sunrise Friday, most of the region was rain-free. This will continue through the morning, with some breaks of sunshine even possible over the eastern half of the area.
Gradually, showers will increase from the west during the midday and afternoon hours. The rain should mainly stay west of Seneca Lake through the mid-afternoon.
Late in the day, the rain should consolidate into a more solid band with some embedded downpours. This should start to develop before sunset in the vicinity of Seneca and Cayuga lakes and points south. From there, this band will expand and move eastward for the early evening hours.
Rain may become widespread through the region during the middle of the night before tapering off during the predawn hours.
South winds will remain breezy through Friday afternoon, peaking at 10-15 mph during the midday and early afternoon. Higher elevations, in particular, may see gusts to 35 mph.
Especially in any areas that see sunshine Friday morning, the south winds will help temperatures warm from an already mild start Friday morning. Afternoon highs will commonly be in the low and mid 60s, though some western areas may be cooler thanks to thicker clouds, showers, and a closer proximity to the cold front.
Winds will lessen late in the afternoon and through the overnight. After midnight, as the cold front moves through, winds will turn to the west and northwest. Overnight lows will be around 50 degrees.
Northern and eastern areas will have the best chance for rain during early Saturday morning, though stray showers will be possible anywhere. The overall trend should be for rain to decrease, but not completely disappear Saturday morning and into the afternoon. Late in the afternoon, the showers may increase near Lake Ontario.
While it will be a cloudy day with spits of drizzle and a few showers, most of the time, it will probably not be raining Saturday.
Northwest winds will steadily increase to speeds of 10-15 mph and a few gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures will only rise a handful of degrees over the morning lows, topping out in the low and mid 50s.
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Temperature Fluctuations
The wind will stay steady at 10-15 mph through Saturday night and throughout the day on Sunday. These winds will continue to pull cool air into the region.
An area of moisture will wrap around low pressure over northern New England on Sunday. Combined with the chilly air and warm waters of the Great Lakes, this should lead to widespread showers, if not steady rain, on Sunday.
Morning lows on Sunday will be near 40 degrees and daytime temperatures may not be able to rise much. Even the mid 40s I currently have in the forecast could end up being too generous, especially over higher elevations. On the contrary, I cannot totally rule out the chance for a few wet flakes mixing in over the higher terrain.
Rain should decrease during the late afternoon and depart Sunday evening. Skies should become mostly clear after midnight, allowing temperatures to reach the mid and upper 30s by Monday morning with patchy frost.
A few clouds will bubble up Monday morning before skies turn sunny for the afternoon. High temperatures will be near or slightly above 50 degrees.
Some clouds may pass through on Monday night, which could prevent temperatures from reaching their full, frosty potential. Still, temperatures should range through the 30s with varying degrees of frost threats.
Tuesday will see temperatures jump back to the low 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. Mid 60s will be possible Wednesday and Thursday, with a few showers on Wednesday.
Cold air will eventually move back in, but whether that happens in time for next weekend or waits for the close of October remains to be seen.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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