Weather turns quiet, gradually warms

finger lakes weather forecast thursday november 2 2023 clouds sun dry warmer temperatures
Temperatures will return to the 40s today with 50s Friday and through the weekend. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil, taken in West Groton]

High Pressure

An area of high pressure has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region and is extending its influence northward into the Finger Lakes.

The first notable change resulting from this high has been a shift in the wind to the southwest. This change occurred overnight and has taken lake effect precipitation from Lake Ontario out of our region. In fact, many of the areas that we cloudy from lake effect yesterday morning are starting off mostly clear today.

On the flip side, areas that were clear yesterday are cloudy this morning as lake effect cloud cover from Lake Erie also pivots northward. A stray flurry cannot be ruled out this morning for far western areas until this, too, lifts north.

Those Lake Erie clouds will team up with some clouds resulting from warmer air moving in to keep most of the area cloudy much of the day. That is not to say there will be no breaks of sunshine throughout the day, however. Sunshine will especially begin poking through the clouds during the mid to late afternoon.

Temperatures will not be as cold as yesterday, but will still be below average. Look for afternoon highs mostly in the mid 40s with a few warmer and cooler pockets. Southwest winds will blow with speeds up to but mostly under 10 mph.

Skies will be mixed tonight, with a better chance for clear skies early in the evening and a better chance for cloudiness through the overnight. Winds will turn to the south and remain steady.

The clouds and winds should prevent another night in the 20s, but lows should still reach the low and mid 30s.

Friday will continue these trends with a mix of sun and clouds and south and southwest winds. Wind speeds will increase to slightly over 10 mph with a few gusts approaching 30 mph. Clouds will be more prevalent later in the day than in the morning.

Afternoon highs will get a jump and should be close to or even slightly above the seasonal averages as they reach the low and mid 50s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu nov 2 | thur, clouds, some sun mid 40 | fri, increasing clouds mid 50 | sat, a few early showers low 50 | sun, mostly cloudy mid 50 | mon, some late rain mid 50 | tues, periods of showers mid 50 | wed, am sun pm clouds mid 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Weather and Next Week’s Forecast

On Saturday, the high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will start to yield to another, weak high pressure moving through the Upper Great Lakes. The southwest winds from the southern high will clash with the more northerly flow ahead of the Great Lakes high.

This will give birth to a weak frontal boundary that will hang around through the weekend. This should keep skies mostly cloudy.

The best chance for rain this weekend will be some scattered showers Saturday morning. These will be light, but most areas will probably see a little rainfall.

Temperatures on Saturday will start in the low to locally mid 40s with highs topping out in the low 50s.

Sunday will be cloudy, and while a few stray showers cannot be ruled out, most areas are looking dry. There will be a better chance for a few showers in the predawn hours, with only an isolated spit of rain or drizzle in the morning.

Sunday should be a touch warmer than Saturday, with highs in the mid 50s.

Skies may clear for a time Sunday night, allowing lows to slip to the upper 30s and low 40s. Morning sunshine on Monday will give way to clouds and eventually some late rain. Most of the rain will fall overnight and into Tuesday.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will both make it into the mid 50s, though temperatures may drop during the second half of Tuesday afternoon.

Cool air will settle back in for the end of next week. Precipitation will be possible, but is too far out to have any certainty of its time, duration, or amount.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu nov 2 | thur, clouds, some sun mid 40 | fri, increasing clouds mid 50 | sat, a few early showers low 50 | sun, mostly cloudy mid 50 | mon, some late rain mid 50 | tues, periods of showers mid 50 | wed, am sun pm clouds mid 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.