An area of high pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will bring quiet, mild conditions for the next two days before our next weather maker arrives late Friday.
Beneath the high, ideal conditions for radiational cooling existed overnight. As such, temperatures early this morning vary quite a bit based on topography, ranging from the low 20s to the mid 30s.
Sunshine and a light but steady south wind will bring temperatures into a more uniform spread through the morning and into the afternoon. Most places will end up in the mid 50s this afternoon, with a few upper 50s around Rochester and in the Genesee Valley, and some low 50s for areas in and around Cortland County.
The sunshine will occasionally mix with thin clouds, especially this afternoon. The clouds may be plentiful enough at times to filter some of the sunshine, but overall, they should not block out too much.
Clear skies will return this evening and persist through the night. However, the south wind will turn to a southwest wind and should help prevent temperatures from getting quite as cold as last night. Most places should see an overnight low in the mid 30s, though some colder pockets could approach 30 degrees.
Thursday should also have a good deal of sunshine with a few thin clouds from time to time. Winds will turn back to the south, but will be light, with speeds at or under 5 mph.
Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than today, with more places in the upper 50s to near 60, and even those eastern hilly areas reaching the mid 50s.
South winds will increase to around 10 mph Thursday evening and clouds will increase after midnight. This will result in a mild overnight with temperatures mainly staying in the low and mid 40s.
Breezy south winds will persist through Friday. After starting warm in the morning, these winds will push high temperatures back into the upper 50s, even though clouds will be plentiful.
Scattered rain showers will start to show up on Friday. These will be most likely in the late afternoon and evening, but some stray showers earlier in the day will also be possible.
Rain will increase Friday night but should mostly be out of the area by Saturday morning. Winds will turn to the northwest with the passage of a cold front during the overnight hours.
By Saturday morning, temperatures will be in the mid 30s with some morning showers and flurries off Lake Ontario. A few spits of rain may persist into the midday and afternoon hours but will otherwise be dry.
Clouds will persist throughout Saturday with northwest winds increasing to as high as 15 mph. Top gusts will be in the 30-35 mph range. High temperatures will respond by struggling into the low 40s with some higher elevations locked into the 30s.
An impulse of atmospheric energy will team up with some enhancement from Lake Ontario on Sunday for more rain and flurries. Lower elevations may be able to warm a couple more degrees into the mid 40s, but higher elevations may again fail to reach 40 degrees.
It will remain breezy on Sunday, but winds will probably not be quite as strong as on Saturday and will have a greater westerly component.
A small bubble of high pressure passes through on Monday with some sunshine, but cold temperatures around 40 degrees.
A strong weather system will then move in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is some potential for strong winds and heavy rain that I will continue to monitor over the coming days.
The weather should be much quieter by Thursday for Thanksgiving, though temperatures will likely be cool.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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