A warm front moved through the Finger Lakes yesterday, but mild air will just start to make its presence noticeable starting today.
The push of warmer air is in response to a strong low pressure system over North Dakota, lifting north toward Canada. A front extends south from this system all the way to Texas, where another low pressure is developing.
Locally, some cloudiness associated with the influx of warm air is moving through the Finger Lakes this morning. These clouds will depart and leave quite a bit of sunshine for the afternoon, though there will still be some occasional clouds mixing in.
The sunshine and a steady south wind will help push temperatures into the mid and upper 40s. A few areas, such as Elmira, Dansville, and Rochester, may flirt with 50 degrees.
Clouds will return tonight, helping keep nighttime temperatures near or just slightly under 40 degrees.
The clouds will stick around throughout much of Saturday. A few glimpses of sun may be possible, but that is about it. No rain will fall during the daytime hours, either, though.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the 50s for all but the Cortland County area, which will be just shy of 50 degrees. Mid and even upper 50s are possible west of Canandaigua Lake, particularly in the Genesee Valley.
Saturday night will see temperatures only dropping to the mid 40s. South winds will continue to blow, and will increase with some gusts to 30 mph over higher elevations after midnight Saturday night.
Rain showers will also start to move in after midnight and will continue off and in into Sunday morning.
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Rain to Snow to Quiet
As Sunday goes on, the rain will expand and intensify, particularly over the southern and eastern halves of the region.
The aforementioned front will move through the region during the afternoon, and a third low pressure moving along the front will be responsible for the uptick in precipitation.
There could be some minor flooding concerns across the Southern Tier and into Central New York, where rain amounts may approach two inches.
Winds on Sunday will not be anything overly strong, but they will switch from the south to the northwest with the passage of the cold front. Temperatures will crash from the 50s to the 30s by evening.
Rain will turn to snow as this happens, and again, the southern and eastern areas will see the most snowfall. Higher elevations will changeover first and thus will see the greatest snow amounts, likely on the order of 3-7 inches of wet, heavy snow. Lower elevations in the southern and eastern areas at this time are looking like 1-4 inches, with the northern and western Finger Lakes seeing no more than an inch or two.
There is still time for this to shift, but the models are coming into a pretty solid consensus, so confidence gets a bit of a boost from that. A major snowfall looks unlikely.
Most of the steady snow will be ending by Monday morning. Slick roads will be possible with temperatures slipping below freezing in many areas. Scattered snow showers will come off of the Great Lakes, but should not amount to much.
Monday will be breezy with northwest wind gusts of 30-40 mph. Temperatures will stick to the mid 30s for highs.
The rest of next week is looking quiet. There should even be some sunny days mixing in. Temperatures will generally stick to the 30s, except for Tuesday, which may be near 40 degrees.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.