Cold Front, Snow Showers
Clouds have built back into the Finger Lakes ahead of a small wave of low pressure and its attached cold front, which is moving through the Upper Great Lakes this morning.
For the most part, it will just be another cloudy but dry day.
There is a little limited lake effect on west-southwest winds coming off Lake Erie this morning. This activity may spread a few flurries into the northwestern Finger Lakes at times today, with little to no impact. A stray flurry cannot be ruled out elsewhere as well, but they will be rare.
The southwest winds, which will blow at speeds slightly over 5 mph, will help keep temperatures in the mid and upper 30s this afternoon.
Snow showers will increase across the area during the late evening hours as midnight approaches. The cold front itself will move through during the predawn hours with a small area of more concentrated snowfall.
Winds will turn to the northwest behind the front with speeds of 10-15 mph throughout Thursday. These winds will bring in cooler air and produce some lake effect.
Thursday morning should start with temperatures in the mid 20s and a widespread spray of lake effect snow showers, especially for areas east of about Seneca Lake. Over time, the snow showers will gradually decrease.
The snow should linger longest over southeastern Tompkins and northeastern Tioga counties, where some Cayuga Lake effect snow will persist until around sunset. Elsewhere, sunshine should increase late in the afternoon.
Snow accumulations for most areas will be under an inch. Some higher elevations in the eastern Finger Lakes, particularly southeast of Ithaca, may see an inch or two.
Temperatures on Thursday will top out mainly in the low 30s, but some higher elevations, especially west of Seneca Lake, will stick to the upper 20s.
Watching Two Weather Systems
I am continuing to closely monitor two weather systems, one Saturday night into Sunday, and another Tuesday night into Wednesday. Neither system is necessarily looking like a big snow producer for our region.
Ahead of the first system, high pressure will slide through on Friday with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will not be far off from average, with morning lows dipping into the 10s and low 20s and afternoon highs in the low 30s.
Saturday will turn cloudy with highs in the mid 30s. Some light snow may arrive during the evening hours as low pressure tracks across the Mid-Atlantic region.
The models have taken a more southern path with this system, largely leaving our area with just some light snow. However, in my experience, the models often take a southward or eastward jog in this timeframe, only to come back to the north or west just before the event unfolds.
Even if this happens, the core of heaviest snow should stay well to our southeast over Pennsylvania and into New England.
I feel increasingly confident that a heavy snowfall of 8 inches or more is very unlikely. The most likely scenario is for northern areas to see an inch or less, while southern areas see a couple of inches. Most of this will fall Saturday night, followed by snow showers with little to no accumulation on Sunday.
Temperatures through the weekend should hover in the mid 30s with nighttime temperatures in the upper half of the 20s.
Monday may have a few early flurries as moisture from the weekend system departs.
The second system is expected to track into the Great Lakes on Tuesday as a strong low pressure. My greatest concern with this system is strong winds, with a secondary concern for heavy rain, starting late Tuesday.
Precipitation could start as and end as some snow, but as long as the general idea of low pressure passing through the Great Lakes holds, I am not thinking this will be a big snow maker, either.
Temperatures will likely remain slightly above average into next weekend, but there are signs of colder air beyond that.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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