No time to rest: Multiple weather hazards expected Tuesday (wind, snow, flooding)

Tuesday Weather Hazards

An area of high pressure will pass through the region today, keeping our weather temporarily quiet before the next strong system rolls in tomorrow.

There are a few lake effect flurries about this morning, but most areas will be dry throughout the day. Any accumulations from lake effect should be limited to a light coating.

The rest of the day will be cloudy with a light northwest wind becoming calm around sunset. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the mid 30s. Nighttime temperatures will drop to the mid and upper 20s, but will start to rise back towards 30 degrees by sunrise.

The quiet weather today allows our focus to turn to a very active weather day tomorrow with multiple modes of hazardous weather likely.

Tuesday morning will start out cloudy and dry, but with an already increasing southeast wind. Wind speeds will already be 15-20 mph by noon with gusts of 30-40 mph across much of the area. Lighter winds are expected north of I-90.

Precipitation will move in during the early afternoon, if not the midday hours. At first, this will likely be all snow with temperatures still in the low to mid 30s. Lower elevations should see accumulations of an inch or less, but higher elevations across the western Southern Tier and Central New York could see several inches of wet, heavy snow and some messy afternoon roads.

Pockets of snow may hold out until sunset before turning to rain. Localized downpours will be possible, especially during the evening and early overnight hours. Some areas, particularly in the southern half of the region, could see over an inch of rainfall.

The rain will be accompanied by rising temperatures and dewpoints. Temperatures should peak overnight in the upper 40s with some areas sneaking into the low 50s. The rain, warm temperatures and dewpoints, and high winds (see below) will lead to rapid snow melt.

Localized flooding is a real possibility, especially along small streams and in poor drainage areas. Basement flooding will also be a concern, especially if the power goes out and sump pumps are unable to run.

Power outages would come from what is probably the most widespread hazard: strong winds. Southeast winds will roar Tuesday evening, peaking between sunset and midnight.

This wind storm is complicated, with terrain and temperature layers aloft playing a significant role. Wind is also extremely susceptible to influences such as trees and buildings, making maximum wind gust an extremely variable measurement.

The greatest wind threat will be over the higher elevations and northern slope locations just south of the Thruway. In particular, southern Onondaga, northern Cortland, and southern and central Cayuga counties in the east, and eastern Livingston and western Ontario counties will have the greatest chance for wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Most other areas will see wind gusts of 50-60 mph, with localized variations in both directions.

These wind gusts are analogous to severe thunderstorm wind gusts. Localized tree damage and power outages are likely. Today should be spent preparing for the wind by securing loose objects and being ready for possible power outages.

All three of the hazards on Tuesday: snow, flooding, and wind, will end up being localized events that not everyone experiences. Most people will probably have only minor to moderate impacts from this event, but a few people will have a more serious impact.

Always remember to count your blessings when you are not seriously impacted, but to remain empathetic, compassionate, and, where possible, helpful to those who were not as lucky.

More Active Weather

The wind will abruptly come to an end around or shortly after midnight Tuesday night as a cold moves through and winds to turn to the southwest. Temperatures will start to fall, reaching the upper 30s and low 40s by dawn Wednesday.

Wind speeds will pick up again after sunrise Wednesday and particularly in the afternoon. Coming from the southwest, gusts of 30-40 mph will be likely.

Precipitation on Wednesday will be limited to on and off scattered rain and snow showers. Heavy precipitation is not expected. Temperatures will hover in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

Thursday will have some lake effect snow showers scattered about the region. Again, accumulations should be minimal to non-existent. Temperatures will start the day in the upper 20s with a high in the mid 30s.

Friday, unfortunately, looks like a repeat of Tuesday. Snow will turn to rain late in the day with high winds building in by the evening. The details, of course, are still uncertain, and it is unlikely to be an exact repeat.

One uncertain possibility is whether there will be snow on the backside of the rain Friday Night and/or Saturday. At the very least, areas of lake effect snow are likely.

Behind this system, a prolonged period of chilly weather will unfold with high temperatures likely locked into the 20s for the foreseeable future.

More Information:

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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