Between Storm Systems
The low pressure system responsible for yesterday’s wind storm will slowly pull away from the area today.
As of early this morning, this system was organized in two parts, with one low pressure center near Albany and a second to our northwest over Lake Huron. A wedge of dry air between the two lows is overhead.
While this dry wedge is around, there may be a few breaks in the clouds this morning. However, moisture will swing back in from the west as the second low tracks eastward.
Rain and snow showers will move through during the midday and early afternoon. The precipitation should only last a couple of hours, as it will quickly pass to the east. For those areas that see snow, no accumulation is expected.
Behind the widespread precipitation, some spits of snow off Lake Erie will dot the region late in the day and through the overnight.
Southwest and west winds will increase again this morning, and while not nearly as strong as yesterday, will still be on the blustery side. Some gusts over 40 mph will be possible for areas west of Seneca Lake, while to the east wind gusts will be 30-40 mph. The strongest winds will be during the afternoon, with a gradual decrease this evening.
Temperatures will not move much today, hovering in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees with some cooler pockets. Overnight temperatures will drop back to the upper 20s and low 30s.
A small, quick moving weather system will pass through on Thursday. Most of what falls will be snow, but some rain may mix in over the typically warmer northern and lakeshore areas. Little to no snow accumulation is expected with highs in the mid 30s.
Thankfully, winds will be light on Thursday.
Another Wind Storm
Unfortunately, another period of strong, potentially damaging winds will unfold on Friday, followed by continued gusty winds through the weekend.
Friday’s weather will have many similarities to Tuesday, though the two storms will not be mirror images of each other.
Precipitation will move in from the southwest during the afternoon or evening, starting as snow. Eventually, the snow will turn over to rain. Some minor snow accumulations may occur.
Total precipitation from this system will be between a half and one inch, which is less than what fell yesterday.
Winds will gradually build through Friday, coming in from the southeast once again. Gusts will be at their strongest during the evening hours. The wind is not expected to quite reach Tuesday’s level, but widespread gusts of 45-55 mph are still likely.
This will likely cause at least scattered tree damage and power outages.
Saturday will likely have some snow showers as moisture moves through in a similar manner to today. Southwest winds will gust at 35-45 mph.
Temperatures will peak during the predawn hours of Saturday around 40 degrees, then drop back through the 30s during the day.
By Sunday, a new, prolonged regime of cold air will be in place. Morning lows will be near 20 degrees with afternoon highs in the mid 20s. The air will remain this cold, or get colder, throughout next week.
With the cold air moving in and moisture lingering behind Friday’s storm, lake effect snow is expected to become intense on Sunday.
With west-southwest winds, the heaviest snow off Lake Erie will be just south of Buffalo, and off Lake Ontario will be closer to Watertown than the Finger Lakes. However, the Lake Erie band will likely extend into our region with areas of accumulating snow.
Sunday will also be windy once again, with gusts around 40 mph.
Models continue to hint at one, possibly two, coastal systems next week. While support for these impacting the Finger Lakes is on the lower side so far, they bear close watching, especially for Tuesday. With cold air locked in place, if we see any precipitation, it will be snow. Stay tuned.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
