Well Above Average Temperatures
With high pressure along the east coast and a large low pressure over the northern Plains and Midwest, warm air is flowing northward unabated through the eastern United States.
Low temperatures this morning are close to the daily average high temperature as most areas start out in the low 30s with a few pockets of upper 20s. Skies are mostly clear except for a few stray thin clouds.
Sunny conditions will continue this morning, but a band of clouds moving across Michigan and southern Ontario will make their way eastward into the Finger Lakes by the afternoon.
Some sunlight may still filter through these afternoon clouds, but it will be notably less sunny than the morning.
Light south winds will be in place, ensuring that temperatures rise significantly regardless of the clouds. Many areas today will be at or slightly above 50 degrees. Higher elevations in and around Cortland County have the best chance of staying under 50 degrees.
South winds will increase this evening, reaching speeds around 10 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph. Some higher elevations may see slightly stronger winds.
Clouds will eventually break up, but not completely disappear. A few stray showers will be possible near and just before dawn. Friday morning’s lows will range from the low 40s near Rochester to the mid 30s in the southeastern Finger Lakes.
Friday will have a mix of sun and clouds and a few isolated, brief showers. The majority of the region will not see any rain, and those that do will only see a very small percentage of the day with rain.
Temperatures will be warmer yet with even higher elevations cracking 50 degrees. Most areas will end up in the mid 50s. South and southwest winds will continue with speeds up to 10 mph.
Warm air will remain in place Friday night and Saturday. Overnight lows will mostly be in the low and mid 40s Saturday morning, while Saturday afternoon again pushes into the low and mid 50s.
The chances for rain will be higher on Saturday as a cold front approaches. However, most of the rain will likely hold off until late in the day. Then, a band of showers will move through relatively quickly with light amounts.
Business Sponsors Needed
Business sponsors play a vital role in funding Finger Lakes Weather by filling budgeting gaps. However, more sponsors are needed. If your business benefits from the forecasting I do, please consider showing your support through a business sponsorship!
As a thank you, business sponsors are listed in several high-visibility locations. With between 600,000 and 800,000 combined page loads and app views each year, sponsors enjoy unparalleled cost-effective local reach. Sponsorship rates have remained unchanged for years, and many sponsors continue their support year after year.
For more information on the Sponsorship Program and to claim one of the of available spots, check out the Sponsorship page right away!
But Wait… it is still February!
Winds will turn to the northwest behind Saturday’s cold front and a new regime of cooler air will build in for an extended stay.
The cooler air will not fully entrench itself on Sunday or Monday, with afternoon highs both days around 40 degrees. Sunday will be rather cloudy, though some late sun will be possible.
Monday will likely start out with mixed skies, but clouds will increase as low pressure begins to take shape to our south.
To the north of this low, a relatively small area of snow will develop late Monday into Monday night. At this point, the models are pretty evenly split between a non-event, a light snow event, and a moderate snow event. A heavy snow event continues to be a low probability bet.
I will continue to monitor the system and will update through the weekend as necessary.
The window for snow will be brief, and by Tuesday morning, any steady snow should be moving out of the area, or already departed. Stray snow showers off Lake Ontario may be possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
Regardless of the eventual location of this low pressure system, it will effectively pull more cold air down into the area. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be close to average for mid-February in the low to mid 30s.
Temperatures will continue to fall into late next week when daytime highs will be well down into the 20s and overnight lows will be into the 10s.
Generally quiet conditions are expected, though. Most of our weather will likely come off Lake Ontario in the form of clouds and a few flurries.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
Doug Laubach
Hello…I enjoy your weather forecasts, you seem to gather weather patterns from different sources and models and add your own intuition to it…I am not sure local media stations are that intrepid in their forecasts, for several selfish reasons…I became familiar with your forecasting while living in Skaneateles but now reside in Cazenovia, outside somewhat of your forecasting range but still follow your prognostications closely extrapolating them for Cazenovia elevation…my question is, I would like to support your endeavors from time to time, but an unaware of what safe options are available, can you receive credit card transfers for example? Thanks, Doug
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Hi Doug, Thank you for your kind words. Yes, you’ve hit my forecasting process on exactly. I use the tools, but keep them as tools, and use my own experience and scientific knowledge to make my forecasts. Too many other forecasts nowadays are just taken straight from a model, or at best, a blend of the models.
Your support is greatly appreciated! Thank you so much. I can do credit card payments at flxweather.com/donate, or I can take checks made out to Finger Lakes Weather LLC and mailed to PO Box 326, Groton, NY 13073.