Weekend Weather Forecast
A weak warm front is sliding through the area this morning, reinforcing an already mild air mass.
Ahead of the front, some clouds and even a couple of stray showers are passing through. Sunshine will increase before long this morning, and the rest of the day should be a mix of sun and clouds.
South winds will turn slightly to towards the southwest with the passage of the front with wind speeds around 10 mph. This will allow even warmer air into the region.
Mid 50s will be widespread this afternoon with locally warmer pockets today. I would not be surprised to see a couple places reach 60 degrees. Even the higher elevations should climb above 50 degrees.
Mixed skies will persist tonight, and south winds will ensure it stays mild. Overnight lows will only dip into the mid 40s for most areas.
Saturday will also be warm, but probably will be a couple degrees cooler than today. Many areas will still see mid 50s.
During the afternoon, a cold front will drop into the area. Scattered showers will develop along the front and there could even be a couple rumbles of thunder. Most areas should see a little rain. Individual showers will be short-lived.
Winds will turn to the west and northwest Saturday evening and persist into Sunday. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday, but still a touch mild for mid-February. Morning lows will be in the low 30s with afternoon highs around 40 degrees.
Monday Snow Rumors
The cold front that moves through late Saturday will stall to our south on Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will develop along the front late Monday.
To the north of the low, a relatively narrow stripe of moderate to heavy snow is expected to develop.
Currently, the models are in a fairly good agreement that this snow will be well to our south. The chances of a heavy snow event in our region were never high and appear to be decreasing.
It is important to note that the models often dive south/east with these types of events at this point in the forecasting. I would not be surprised to see the models come back north a bit over the weekend, but I remain doubtful it will be far enough north to place our area in the core of the snow.
Even if the core of the snow did make it into the Finger Lakes region, snow amounts would likely vary greatly across the area due to the overall small area of heavy snow.
In conclusion, I will continue to watch this system over the weekend and think there is a potential for some light snow in parts of the area Monday night. However, I remain highly skeptical of a major snow event.
Ahead of any snow, Monday will likely just be a cloudy day with highs again topping out around 40 degrees. Any snow will primarily fall Monday evening and Monday night.
Tuesday is expected to be partly cloudy, regardless of whether it snows Monday night or not. Temperatures will take another dip as cool air is pulled into the low pressure system. Look for highs in the mid 30s with some blustery northwest winds.
A few lake effect snow showers may develop Wednesday and Thursday, and again towards the weekend. None of this snow is expected to be heavy with only localized minor accumulations.
Temperatures will be cool, though, with highs in the 20s late next week and overnight lows into the 10s.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
